A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities

Alfred Michael Dockery, Mark N. Harris, Nicholas Holyoak, Ranjodh B. Singh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)37-61
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Geographical Systems
Volume23
Issue number1
Early online date28 Jul 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021

Keywords

  • Australia
  • Cohort replacement
  • Indigenous
  • Population modelling
  • Population projections
  • Regional and remote

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this