A shrinking future: declining local enrolments and international caps threaten unis

Australia boasts a diverse and dynamic higher education system, with over 1.6 million students as of 2023.

Remarkably, nearly 1.5 million of them are enrolled in universities that are part of Universities Australia (UA), and around 30% of them are international students, underscoring the sector’s excellence and global standing.

However, the stability and the future growth of Australian universities are threatened by a dual challenge. The first challenge stems from a very significant but rarely noticed decline in the population aged 18 to 25 years. The second challenge arises from a decision by the federal government to cap the number of visas granted to international students that has already sparked concerns as the international students’ admission fees is a major source of revenue for the entire university sector.

The two challenges mentioned above pose a considerable threat to sustaining Australia’s higher education sector. Referring to a similar situation in the United States, Bruce Mackh describes the projected decline in domestic higher education student enrolment from 2025 as “the enrolment cliff,” attributing this trend primarily to declining birth rates and shifting demographics. Mackh also criticises the higher education sector for maintaining its usual practices and status quo, despite clear evidence of a declining birth rate, and cautions that without strategic intervention, universities will face significant challenges in maintaining enrolment.