A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic

O. Lesnyak, A. Zakroyeva, O. Lobanchenko, H. Johansson, E. Liu, M. Lorentzon, N. C. Harvey, E. McCloskey, J. A. Kanis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
28 Downloads (Pure)


Summary: The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Introduction: The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country. Objective: This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic. Methods: The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic. Results: Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75–80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050. Conclusion: The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Original languageEnglish
Article number68
Number of pages5
JournalArchives of Osteoporosis
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2020
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.


  • Epidemiology
  • Fracture probability
  • FRAX
  • Hip fracture
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kyrgyz Republic
  • Surrogate

Cite this