Anti-Müllerian hormone is a predictor of medium-term cumulative live birth following in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection: A retrospective study

Objectives: This study aims to examine the capacity of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) to predict cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) following IVF/ICSI within 36 months since start of treatment. 

Study design: This is a cohort study of women seeking IVF/ICSI fertility treatment in a private Australian IVF clinic in a single calendar year. Live births were monitored over three years following start date of IVF/ICSI. The impact of serum AMH level on the CLBR was assessed using Cox's proportional hazard models, and its incremental values in the prediction of CLBR were evaluated. 

Results: The CLBRs were significantly higher in women with AMH levels in the highest (>44.5 pmol/L; 87.0%, 95% CI 79.2% – 95.1%) and in the middle two quartiles (between 11.5 and 44.5 pmol/L; 81.0%, 95% CI 74.2% – 87.6%), compared with AMH levels below the 25th percentile (≤11.5 pmol/L; 63.2%, 95% CI 53.2% – 74.5%). Approximately half of the women with AMH in the lowest quartile conceived a live birth within 12 months of starting IVF compared with two-thirds of the women in the upper three quartiles. After adjusting for confounders, AMH remained a significant, albeit slight predictor of CLBR with a fall of 3 pmol/L equating to an 1% decrease in CLBR. The AMH's added values into the prediction of live birth were slight, indicated by a net reclassification improvement of 13.8%. The value is lower than that of maternal age (35.1%).

Conclusions: Serum AMH level was a significant slight predictor of CLBR following IVF/ICSI. AMH should not be used to exclude women from IVF/ICSI however, women with low AMH should be counselled on the likelihood of taking longer to achieve a live birth than individuals with normal AMH levels.