Purpose To determine if open-angle glaucoma (OAG)-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with incident glaucoma and if such genetic information is useful in OAG risk prediction. Design Case-control from within a population-based longitudinal study. Methods study population: Individuals aged over 49 years of age living in the Blue Mountains region west of Sydney and enrolled in the Blue Mountains Eye Study. observation: Cases for this sub-study (n = 67) developed incident OAG between baseline and 10-year visits, in either eye, while controls (n = 1919) had no evidence for OAG at any visit. All participants had an ocular examination and DNA genotyped for reported OAG risk SNPs. main outcome measure: Incident OAG. Results Two loci also known to be associated with cup-to-disc ratio as well as OAG (9p21 near CDKN2B-AS1 and SIX1/SIX6) were both significantly associated with incident OAG in the Blue Mountains Eye Study cohort (P =.006 and P =.004, respectively). The TMCO1 locus was nominally associated (P =.012), while the CAV1/CAV2 and 8q22 loci were not associated. Multivariate logistic regression and neural network analysis both indicated that the genetic risk factors contributed positively to the predictive models incorporating traditional risk factors. Conclusions This study shows that previously reported genetic variations related to OAG and cup-to-disc ratio are associated with the onset of OAG and thus may become useful in risk prediction algorithms designed to target early treatment to those most at risk of developing glaucoma.