Balancing urban growth and environmental change: Land use patterns in Tehran and Sydney

The large-scale conversion of agricultural, forest, and bare lands into urban areas is a defining feature of contemporary metropolitan expansion, reshaping natural landscapes and altering land cover patterns. This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) in Tehran, Iran, and Sydney, Australia, over a 30-year period (1993-2023), emphasizing shifts from natural land cover to the built environment. By employing multi-source spatial data and comparative analysis, we identify distinct urbanization trends and transformation pathways in both cities. Tehran has undergone more extensive and accelerated land conversion, with a pronounced shift from agricultural land and bare soil to built-up areas, reflecting rapid and intensive urban growth. In contrast, Sydney's land development strategies have been more structured, prioritizing the retention of agricultural land while directing urban expansion toward previously bare or disturbed areas. Intensity analysis reveals that Tehran's LULCC is not only faster but also more extensive, leading to a more fragmented landscape with a higher proportion of built-up land. Logistic regression analysis indicates that access to road networks is a major driver of land conversion in both cities, shaping the spatial distribution of urban growth. FLUS model projections for 2035 suggest that, without regulatory interventions, Tehran will continue to experience high rates of agricultural and bare land loss, reinforcing urban expansion trends. These findings highlight the need for strategic land-use planning to manage urbanization sustainably, drawing insights from Sydney's more regulated approach. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of LULCC patterns in rapidly developing metropolitan regions, offering valuable perspectives for urban and regional planning efforts.