Challenges or drivers? Threshold effects of environmental regulation on China's agricultural green productivity

This study investigates the effect of environmental regulation (ER) on the growth of Chinese agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP). Threshold model results suggest an inverted-U shaped interconnection between command-control ER and growth of agricultural GTFP, a decreasing positive marginal effect of voluntary ER, and an absence of influence of incentive-based ER. Regional heterogeneity test indicates that command-control ER affects agricultural GTFP growth in a far more favorable way in less developed provinces than in more developed provinces, and only the former can benefit from the synergistic effect between command-control and voluntary ER. Mediating effect test results reveal that agricultural green innovation and grain crop proportion are channels through which ER affect agricultural GTFP growth, highlighting the pressing need to stimulate green innovation and realize green transformation of grain production.