TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change enhances the potential impact of infectious disease and harvest on tropical waterfowl
AU - Traill, Lochran W.
AU - Bradshaw, Corey J.A.
AU - Field, Hume E.
AU - Brook, Barry W.
PY - 2009/7/1
Y1 - 2009/7/1
N2 - Global warming exacerbates threats to biodiversity as ecological systems shift in response to altered climatic conditions. Yet the long-term survival of populations at direct risk from climate change may also be undermined by local factors such as infectious disease or anthropogenic harvest, which leave smaller and more isolated populations increasingly vulnerable to the rapid pace of global change. We review current and future threats to an exemplar tropical waterfowl species, magpie geese Anseranas semipalmata, and focus on the potential synergies between infectious diseases, harvest, and climate change. We outline viral, bacterial, and fungal pathogens likely to cause disease in geese, and give mention to parasites. Further, we elaborate on a previously developed, spatially explicit population viability model to simulate demographic responses to hunting and novel or enhanced disease outbreaks due to climate change. With no harvest, the simulated disease epizootics only threatened metapopulation viability when both mortality rate was high and outbreaks were regular (a threshold response). However, when contemporary site-specific harvest is included as an additive impact, the response to disease severity and probability was linear. We recommend field research to test these hypotheses linking drivers of waterfowl population decline to disease-climate change interactions.
AB - Global warming exacerbates threats to biodiversity as ecological systems shift in response to altered climatic conditions. Yet the long-term survival of populations at direct risk from climate change may also be undermined by local factors such as infectious disease or anthropogenic harvest, which leave smaller and more isolated populations increasingly vulnerable to the rapid pace of global change. We review current and future threats to an exemplar tropical waterfowl species, magpie geese Anseranas semipalmata, and focus on the potential synergies between infectious diseases, harvest, and climate change. We outline viral, bacterial, and fungal pathogens likely to cause disease in geese, and give mention to parasites. Further, we elaborate on a previously developed, spatially explicit population viability model to simulate demographic responses to hunting and novel or enhanced disease outbreaks due to climate change. With no harvest, the simulated disease epizootics only threatened metapopulation viability when both mortality rate was high and outbreaks were regular (a threshold response). However, when contemporary site-specific harvest is included as an additive impact, the response to disease severity and probability was linear. We recommend field research to test these hypotheses linking drivers of waterfowl population decline to disease-climate change interactions.
KW - Anseranas semipalmata
KW - Avian disease
KW - Global warming
KW - Population viability analysis
KW - Tropical Australia
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=67651205747&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://purl.org/au-research/grants/ARC/DP0558350
U2 - 10.1111/j.1744-7429.2009.00508.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1744-7429.2009.00508.x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:67651205747
VL - 41
SP - 414
EP - 423
JO - Biotropica
JF - Biotropica
SN - 0006-3606
IS - 4
ER -