TY - JOUR
T1 - Convergence of mechanistic modeling and artificial intelligence in hydrologic science and engineering
AU - Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael
AU - Carmona-Cabrero, Alvaro
AU - Yu, Ziwen
AU - Fox, Garey
AU - Batelaan, Okke
PY - 2023/8/7
Y1 - 2023/8/7
N2 - Hydrology is a mature physical science based on application of first principles. However, the water system is complex and its study requires analysis of increasingly large data available from conventional and novel remote sensing and IoT sensor technologies. New data-driven approaches like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are attracting much “hype” despite their apparent limitations (transparency, interpretability, ethics). Some AI/ML applications lack in addressing explicitly important hydrological questions, focusing mainly on “black-box” prediction without providing mechanistic insights. We present a typology of four main types of hydrological problems based on their dominant space and time scales, review their current tools and challenges, and identify important opportunities for AI/ML in hydrology around three main topics: data management, insights and knowledge extraction, and modelling structure. Instead of just for prediction, we propose that AI/ML can be a powerful inductive and exploratory dimension-reduction tool within the rich hydrological toolchest to support the development of new theories that address standing gaps in changing hydrological systems. AI/ML can incorporate other forms of structured and non-structured data and traditional knowledge typically not considered in process-based models. This can help us further advance process-based understanding, forecasting and management of hydrological systems, particularly at larger integrated system scales with big models. We call for reimagining the original definition of AI in hydrology to incorporate not only today’s main focus on learning, but on decision analytics and action rules, and on development of autonomous machines in a continuous cycle of learning and refinement in the context of strong ethical, legal, social, and economic constrains. For this, transdisciplinary communities of knowledge and practice will need to be forged with strong investment from the public sector and private engagement to protect water as a common good under accelerated demand and environmental change.
AB - Hydrology is a mature physical science based on application of first principles. However, the water system is complex and its study requires analysis of increasingly large data available from conventional and novel remote sensing and IoT sensor technologies. New data-driven approaches like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are attracting much “hype” despite their apparent limitations (transparency, interpretability, ethics). Some AI/ML applications lack in addressing explicitly important hydrological questions, focusing mainly on “black-box” prediction without providing mechanistic insights. We present a typology of four main types of hydrological problems based on their dominant space and time scales, review their current tools and challenges, and identify important opportunities for AI/ML in hydrology around three main topics: data management, insights and knowledge extraction, and modelling structure. Instead of just for prediction, we propose that AI/ML can be a powerful inductive and exploratory dimension-reduction tool within the rich hydrological toolchest to support the development of new theories that address standing gaps in changing hydrological systems. AI/ML can incorporate other forms of structured and non-structured data and traditional knowledge typically not considered in process-based models. This can help us further advance process-based understanding, forecasting and management of hydrological systems, particularly at larger integrated system scales with big models. We call for reimagining the original definition of AI in hydrology to incorporate not only today’s main focus on learning, but on decision analytics and action rules, and on development of autonomous machines in a continuous cycle of learning and refinement in the context of strong ethical, legal, social, and economic constrains. For this, transdisciplinary communities of knowledge and practice will need to be forged with strong investment from the public sector and private engagement to protect water as a common good under accelerated demand and environmental change.
KW - Artificial intelligence
KW - Hydrology
KW - Data management
KW - Forecasting
KW - Remote sensing
KW - Machine learning
KW - Land use
KW - Nonlinear dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85188183826&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000059
DO - 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000059
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:85188183826
SN - 2767-3219
VL - 2
JO - PLOS Water
JF - PLOS Water
IS - 8
M1 - e0000059
ER -