Distribution Modeling of three screwworm species in the ecologically diverse landscape of North West Pakistan

North West Pakistan (NWP) is characterized by four eco-zones: Northern Montane Region, North Western Hills, Submontane Region and Indus Plains. Present study identified 1037 cases of traumatic myiasis in the region during 2012–2015. Screw worm larvae were classified as 12 species: Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve), Chryomya megacephala (Fabricius), Chrysomya rufifacies (Macquart), Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann), Lucilia sericata (Meigen), Lucilia illustris (Meigen), Lucilia porphyrina (Walker), Hemipyrellia ligguriens (Wiedemann), Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy), Wohlfahrtia magnifica (Schiner), Sarcophaga crassipalpalis (Macquart), Sarchophaga species. Among these C. bezziana, L. cuprina and W. magnifica with approximately 882 case reports were the principal agents of traumatic myiasis. The species W. magnifica is a first report from Pakistan. In order to investigate spatial distribution of these dominant species we used MaxEnt niche model. Our results revealed a well-established occurrence of C. bezziana and L. cuprina in the four eco-regions while W. magnifica is currently contained in the Submontane Region. Several hot spot areas of infestation were detected all characterized by high human population density showing synanthropic nature of these species. Wohlfahrtia magnifica was excluded from Northern Montane Region with severe winters and Southern Indus Plains with harsh summers revealing that invasive species are initially sensitive to extreme of temperatures. Presence of L. cuprina in the wet areas of North Humid Belt (Maximum annual precipitation: 1641 mm) depicted a moisture preference of the species. In perspective of changing climate and future predictions of severe events such as droughts and flooding in NWP, W. magnifica can potentially alter the species composition. Considering these findings in an eco-geographically dynamic region of Pakistan we predict that two factors (1) Growing human population (2) Climatic conditions, equally contribute to range shift of synanthropic species.