TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects of climate change on economic feasibility of future date palm production
T2 - An integrated assessment in Iran
AU - Shabani, Farzin
AU - Cacho, Oscar
AU - Kumar, Lalit
PY - 2016/7/3
Y1 - 2016/7/3
N2 - This study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10°, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450 km2 of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50 km2, respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.
AB - This study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10°, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450 km2 of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50 km2, respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.
KW - agriculture
KW - climate change
KW - CLIMEX
KW - date palms
KW - economics
KW - Phoenix dactyliferaL
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84967341199&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/10807039.2016.1162089
DO - 10.1080/10807039.2016.1162089
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84967341199
VL - 22
SP - 1268
EP - 1287
JO - Human and Ecological Risk Assessment
JF - Human and Ecological Risk Assessment
SN - 1080-7039
IS - 5
ER -