Estimating historical commercial rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) catch inside Australian State territorial waters for marine protected area assessment: The binomial likelihood method

The rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) fishery of South Australia is the State's most valuable fisheries resource with an export value exceeding $100 million. The fishery operates primarily inshore (<60 m), and overlaps with a series of marine protected areas (MPAs) currently proposed for State territorial waters. As a result, the need to quantify the impact of proposed MPAs on commercial landings of rock lobster within territorial waters is an integral part of the MPA assessment process. Removing fishing effort displaced by MPAs prevents a corresponding increase in exploitation outside protected zones. We describe a binomial likelihood method that utilises historical commercial catch data to estimate catch totals of rock lobster inside South Australian State waters. Lobster catches per km² showed a high level of spatial variation with estimated historical lobster catch in State waters spanning approximately three orders of magnitude. The method identified key areas where high lobster catch (up to 500 kg/km²) overlapped with State waters. Binomial likelihood outputs have particular application to the estimation of net catch loss in situations where fishery buy-back or financial compensation are a considered option as part of the MPA implementation process.