Estimating potential palliative care needs for residential aged care: A population-based retrospective cohort study

Objective: Population-based data on the required needs for palliative care in residential aged care have been highlighted as a key information gap. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive estimate of palliative care needs among Australia's residential aged care population using a validated algorithm based on causes of death. Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the Registry of Senior Australians of non-Indigenous residents of residential aged care services in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia aged older than 65 years, who died between 2016 and 2017 (n = 71,677). An internationally validated algorithm was used to estimate and characterise potential palliative care needs based on causes of death. This estimate was compared to palliative care needs identified from funding-based care needs assessment data. Results: Ninety two per cent (n = 65,949) were estimated to have had potential palliative care needs prior to their death. Of these, 19% (n = 12,467) were assigned an end-of-life trajectory related to cancer, 61% (n = 40,511) to organ failure and 20% (n = 12,971) to frailty and dementia. By comparison, only 6% (n = 4430) of residents were assessed as needing palliative care by the funding-based care needs assessment. Conclusions: Over 90% of individuals dying in residential aged care may have benefited from a palliative approach to care. This need is substantially underestimated by the funding-based care needs assessment, which utilises a narrow definition of palliative care when death is imminent. There is a clear imperative to distinguish between palliative and end-of-life care needs within residential aged care to ensure appropriate and equitable access to palliative care.