Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Survival Trends in South Australia, 1990–2017

Background & Aims: Globally, there has been a concerning rise in the incidence of youngonset cancers. The aim of this study was to provide trends in the incidence and survival of gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas (oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and colorectal) in South Australia over a 27-year period. Methods: This is a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective longitudinal database including all cases of gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas prospectively reported to the South Australian (State) Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2017. Results: A total of 28,566 patients diagnosed with oesophageal, stomach, pancreatic, or colorectal adenocarcinoma between 1990 and 2017 were included in the study. While the overall incidence for gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas in individuals >50 years has decreased since 2000 (IRR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94–1.00; p = 0.06)) compared to 1990–1999, the rate amongst individuals aged 18–50 has significantly increased (IRR 1.41 (95% CI 1.27–1.57; p <0.001)) during the same reference time period. Although noted in both sexes, the rate of increase in incidence was significantly greater in males (11.5 to 19.7/100,000; p <0.001). The overall survival from adenocarcinomas across all subsites improved in the >50-year cohort in the last decade (HR 0.89 (95% CI 0.86–0.93; p <0.001)) compared to 1990–1999. In individuals aged 18–50 years, there has only been a significant improvement in survival for colorectal cancer (HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.68–0.99; p <0.04)), but not the other subsites. A lower overall survival was noted for males in both age cohorts (18–50 years—HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.09–1.13; p <0.01) and >50 years—HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.10–1.16; p <0.001), respectively) compared to females. Conclusions: This study from South Australia demonstrates a significant increase in young-onset gastrointestinal adenocarcinomas over the last 28 years, with a greater increase in the male sex. The only significant improvement in survival in this cohort has been noted in colorectal cancer patients.