Abstract
Management of groundwater resources is increasingly reliant on numerical simulation. Unfortunately, decision-support modelling is often conducted under the premise that predictive reliability increases with modelling complexity. In truth, while modelling complexity can support quantification of predictive uncertainty, the latter is a function of data availability. Excessive complexity can often erode, rather than enhance, a model’s ability to quantify and reduce the uncertainties of decision-critical predictions by reducing its capacity to assimilate prediction-salient information. We submit that a groundwater model is more productively viewed as a data assimilator for decision-pertinent information than as simulating subsurface processes, even though the latter role (though imperfect) underpins the former. Assimilated data may, or may not, allow rejection of the hypothesis that a certain course of management action will have adverse consequences. Either way, the decision-making process requires that this hypothesis be tested. In the following document, we outline how decision-support environmental modelling can be implemented with the scientific method, and discuss how uncertainties of decision-salient predictions can be addressed with appropriate model complexity so that stakeholder expectations are better aligned with what models can and cannot deliver to the decision-making process.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation: Theory and Practice for a Sustainable Development |
Subtitle of host publication | Proceedings of the 1st Congress on Geoethics and Groundwater Management (GEOETH&GWM’20), Porto, Portugal 2020 |
Editors | Manuel Abrunhosa, António Chambel, Silvia Peppoloni, Helder I. Chaminé |
Place of Publication | Cham, Switzerland |
Publisher | Springer Nature |
Pages | 425-428 |
Number of pages | 4 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 978-3-030-59320-9 |
ISBN (Print) | 978-3-030-59319-3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2021 |
Externally published | Yes |
Event | 1st Congress on Geoethics and Groundwater Management - , Portugal Duration: 18 May 2020 → 22 May 2020 Conference number: 1 |
Publication series
Name | Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation |
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ISSN (Print) | 2522-8714 |
ISSN (Electronic) | 2522-8722 |
Conference
Conference | 1st Congress on Geoethics and Groundwater Management |
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Country/Territory | Portugal |
Period | 18/05/20 → 22/05/20 |
Keywords
- Complexity
- Decision support
- Modelling
- Scientific method
- Uncertainty