Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Christopher Murray, Katrina Ortblad, Caterina Guinovart, Stephen Lim, Timothy Wolock, D Roberts, Emily Dansereau, Nicholas Graetz, Ryan Barber, Jonathan Brown, Haidong Wang, Herbert Duber, Mohsen Naghavi, Daniel Dicker, Lalit Dandona, J Salomon, Kyle Heuton, Kyle Foreman, David Phillips, Thomas FlemingAbraham Flaxman, Bryan Phillips, Elizabeth Johnson, Megan Coggeshall, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Abera, Jerry Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith Abu-Raddad, Niveen Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Austine Adeyemo, Arsene Adou, Jose Adsuar, Emilie Agardh, Dickens Akena, Mazin Al Kahbouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed Albittar, Gabriel Alcala-Cerra, Miguel Alegretti, Zewdie Alemu, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Francois Allat, Peter Allen, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Alvarez, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Adansi Amankwaa, Azmeraw Amare, Hassan Amini, Walid Ammar, Benjamin Anderson, Carl Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Arnlov, Valentina Arsenijevic, Ali Artaman, Rana Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia Atkins, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Sanjay Basu, Justin Beardsley, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle Bell, Eduardo Bernabe, Tariku Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Aref Abdulhak, Agnes Binagwahot, Jed Blore, Berrak Basara, Dipan Bose, Michael Brainin, Nicholas Breitborde, Carlos Castaneda-Orjuela, Ferran Catala-Lopez, Vineet Chadha, Jungchen Chang, Peggy Chiang, Tingwu Chuang, Mercedes Colomar, Leslie Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Karen Courville, Benjamin Cowie, Michael Criqui, Rakhi Dandona, Anand Dayama, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Borja Del Pozo-Cruz, Kebede Deribe, Don Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Samath Dharmaratne, Ugur Dilmen, Eric Ding, Tim Driscoll, Adnan Durrani, Richard Ellenbogen, Sergei Ermakov, Alireza Esteghamati, Emerito Faraon, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed Fereshtehnejad, Daniel Fijabi, Mohammad Forouzanfar, Urbano Paleo, Lynne Gaffikin, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Fortune Gankpe, Johanna Geleijnse, Bradford Gessner, Katherine Gibney, Ibrahim Ginawi, Elizabeth Glaser, Philimon Gona, Atsushi Goto, Hebe Gouda, Harish Gugnani, Raj Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah Hamadeh, Mouhanad Hammami, Graeme Hankey, Hilda Harb, Josep Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon Hay, Mohammad Hedayati, Ileana Pi, Hans Hoek, John Hornberger, H Hosgood III, Peter Hotez, Damian Hoy, John Huang, Kim Iburg, Bulat Idrisov, Kaire Innos, Kathryn Jacobsen, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Gouhong Jiang, Jost Jonas, Knud Juel, Haidong Kan, Ida Kankindi, Nadim Karam, Andre Karch, Corine Karema, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Dhruv Kazi, Andrew Kemp, Andre Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Khader, Shams Khalifa, Ejaz Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Irma Khonelidze, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas Kinge, Luke Knibbs, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Barthelemy Defo, Chanda Kulkarni, Veena Kulkarni, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi Kumar, Gautam Kumar, Gene Kwan, Taavi Lai, Arjun Balji, Hilton Lam, Qing Lan, Lansingh Van, Heidi Larson, Anders Larsson, Jongtae Lee, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Ricky Leung, Yichong Li, Yongmei Li, Graca De Lima, Hsien-Ho Lin, Steven Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda Lloyd, Paulo Lotufo, Vasco Machado, Jennifer MacLachlan, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Marek Majdan, Christopher Mapoma, Wagner Marcenes, Melvin Marzan, Joseph Masci, Mohammad Mashal, Amanda Mason-Jones, Bongani Mayosi, Tasara Mazorodze, Abigail McKay, Peter Meaney, Man Mehndiratta, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Yohannes Melaku, Z Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ted Miller, Edward Mills, Karzan Mohhamd, Ali Mokdad, Glen Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Ami Moore, Rintaro Mori, Wilkister Moturi, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Kinnari Murthy, Aliya Naheed, Kovin Naidoo, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, Kabayam Narayan, Denis Nash, Chakib Nejjari, Robert Nelson, Sudan Neupane, Charles Newton, Marie Ng, Muhammad Nisar, Sandra Nolte, Ole Norheim, Vincent Nowaseb, Luke Nyakarahuka, Inhwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Bolajoko Olusanya, Saad Omer, John Opio, Orish Orisakwe, Jeyaraj Pandian, Christina Papachristou, Angel Caicedo, Scott Patten, Vinod Paul, Boris Pavlin, Neil Pearce, David Pereira, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Farshad Pourmalek, Dima Qato, Amado Quezada, Duane Quistberg, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Sajjad Rahman, Murugesan Raju, Saleem Rana, Homie Razavi, Robert Reilly, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Jan Richardus, Luca Ronfani, Nobhojit Roy, Nsanzimana Sabin, Mohammad Saeedi, Mohammad Sahraian, Genesis Samonte, Monika Sawhney, Ione Schneider, David Schwebel, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf Sepanlou, Edson Servan-Mori, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kenji Shibuya, Hwashin Shin, Ivy Shiue, Rupak Shivakoti, Inga Sigfusdottir, Donald Silberberg, Andrea Silva, Edgar Simard, Jasvinder Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Samir Soneji, Sergey Soshnikov, Chandrashekhar Sreeramareddy, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan Sykes, Karen Tabb, Robert Talongwa, Eric Tenkorang, Abdullah Terkawi, Alan Thomson, Andrew Thorne-Lyman, Jeffrey Towbin, Jefferson Traebert, Bach Tran, Zacharie Dimbuene, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris, Uche Uchendu, Kingsley Ukwaja, Selem Uzant, Andrew Vallely, Tommi Vasankari, N Venketasubramanian, Francesco Violante, Vasiliy Vlassov, Stein Vollset, Stephen Waller, Mitchell Wallin, Linhong Wang, Sharon Wang, Yanping Wang, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert Weintraub, Ronny Westerman, Richard White, James Wilkinson, Thomas Williams, Solomon Woldeyohannes, John Wong, Gelin Xu, Claire Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Gokalp Yentur, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seokjun Yoon, Mustafa Younis, Yong Zhao, Chuanhua Yu, Kimyun Jin, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Y Zhao, Yingfeng Zheng, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Xiaonong Zou, Alan Lopez, Theo Vos

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    Abstract

    Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1005-1070
    Number of pages66
    JournalLancet
    Volume384
    Issue number9947
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

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