@article{faf34297b39e466485ec91ec98a1c2d1,
title = "Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015",
abstract = "Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "{GBD 2015 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators} and T. Vos and C. Allen and M. Arora and Barber, {R. M.} and A. Brown and A. Carter and Casey, {D. C.} and Charlson, {F. J.} and Chen, {A. Z.} and M. Coggeshall and L. Cornaby and L. Dandona and Dicker, {D. J.} and T. Dilegge and Erskine, {H. E.} and Ferrari, {A. J.} and C. Fitzmaurice and T. Fleming and Forouzanfar, {M. H.} and N. Fullman and Goldberg, {E. M.} and N. Graetz and Haagsma, {J. A.} and Hay, {S. I.} and Johnson, {C. O.} and Kassebaum, {N. J.} and T. Kawashima and L. Kemmer and Khalil, {I. A.} and Kyu, {H. H.} and J. Leung and Lim, {S. S.} and Lopez, {A. D.} and L. Marczak and Mokdad, {A. H.} and M. Naghavi and G. Nguyen and E. Nsoesie and H. Olsen and Pigott, {D. M.} and C. Pinho and Z. Rankin and N. Reinig and L. Sandar and A. Smith and J. Stanaway and C. Steiner and S. Teeple and Thomas, {B. A.} and C. Troeger and Wagner, {J. A.} and H. Wang and V. Wanga and Whiteford, {H. A.} and L. Zoeckler and Alexander, {L. T.} and Anderson, {G. M.} and B. Bell and K. Bienhoff and S. Biryukov and J. Blore and J. Brown and Coates, {M. M.} and F. Daoud and K. Estep and K. Foreman and J. Fox and J. Friedman and J. Frostad and Godwin, {W. W.} and J. Hancock and C. Huynh and M. Iannarone and P. Kim and M. Kutz and F. Masiye and A. Millear and M. Mirarefin and Mooney, {M. D.} and M. Moradi-Lakeh and E. Mullany and Mumford, {J. E.} and M. Ng and P. Rao and Reitsma, {M. B.} and A. Reynolds and Roth, {G. A.} and Shackelford, {K. A.} and A. Sivonda and A. Sligar and Sorensen, {R. J.D.} and P. Sur and Vollset, {S. E.} and R. Woodbrook and M. Zhou and Murray, {C. J.L.} and Ellenbogen, {R. G.} and Kotsakis, {G. A.} and Mock, {C. N.} and Anderson, {B. O.} and Futran, {N. D.} and Jensen, {P. N.} and Watkins, {D. A.} and Bhutta, {Z. A.} and Nisar, {M. I.} and N. Akseer and Abajobir, {A. A.} and Knibbs, {L. D.} and R. Lalloo and Scott, {J. G.} and Alam, {N. K.M.} and Gouda, {H. N.} and Y. Guo and McGrath, {J. J.} and P. Jeemon and R. Dandona and Kumar, {G. A.} and Gething, {P. W.} and D. Bisanzio and A. Deribew and R. Ali and Bennett, {D. A.} and K. Rahimi and Y. Kinfu and L. Duan and Y. Li and S. Liu and Y. Jin and L. Wang and P. Ye and X. Liang and P. Azzopardi and Gibney, {K. B.} and A. Meretoja and K. Alam and R. Borschmann and Colquhoun, {S. M.} and Patton, {G. C.} and Weintraub, {R. G.} and Szoeke, {C. E.I.} and Z. Ademi and Taylor, {H. R.} and R. Lozano and Campos-Nonato, {I. R.} and Campuzano, {J. C.} and H. Gomez-Dantes and Heredia-Pi, {I. B.} and F. Mejia-Rodriguez and {Monta{\~n}ez Hernandez}, {J. C.} and {Rios Blancas}, {M. J.} and Servan-Mori, {E. E.} and Mensah, {G. A.} and Salomon, {J. A.} and Thorne-Lyman, {A. L.} and Ajala, {O. N.} and T. B{\"a}rnighausen and Ding, {E. L.} and Farvid, {M. S.} and Wagner, {G. R.} and M. Osman and Shrime, {M. G.} and Fitchett, {J. R.A.} and Abate, {K. H.} and Gebrehiwot, {T. T.} and Gebremedhin, {A. T.} and C. Abbafati and Abbas, {K. M.} and F. Abd-Allah and B. Abraham and I. Abubakar and A. Banerjee and H. Benzian and Abu-Raddad, {L. J.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {N. M.} and Ackerman, {I. N.} and R. Buchbinder and B. Gabbe and Thrift, {A. G.} and Adebiyi, {A. O.} and Akinyemi, {R. O.} and T. F{\"u}rst and Adou, {A. K.} and Afanvi, {K. A.} and Agardh, {E. E.} and A. Badawi and S. Popova and A. Agarwal and {Ahmad Kiadaliri}, A. and B. Norrving and H. Ahmadieh and M. Yaseri and N. Jahanmehr and Z. Al-Aly and Driscoll, {T. R.} and Kemp, {A. H.} and J. Leigh and Mekonnen, {A. B.} and Aldhahri, {S. F.} and Altirkawi, {K. A.} and Alegretti, {M. A.} and Alemu, {Z. A.} and S. Alhabib and A. Alkerwi and F. Alla and F. Guillemin and P. Allebeck and Rabiee, {R. H.S.} and Carrero, {J. J.} and Fereshtehnejad, {S. M.} and E. Weiderpass and R. Havmoeller and R. Al-Raddadi and U. Alsharif and N. Alvis-Guzman and Amare, {A. T.} and Melaku, {Y. A.} and Ciobanu, {L. G.} and A. Amberbir and H. Amini and Karema, {C. K.} and W. Ammar and Harb, {H. L.} and Amrock, {S. M.} and Andersen, {H. H.} and Antonio, {C. A.T.} and Aregay, {A. F.} and Betsu, {B. D.} and Hailu, {G. B.} and Yebyo, {H. G.} and J. {\"A}rnl{\"o}v and A. Larsson and A. Artaman and H. Asayesh and R. Assadi and S. Atique and Avokpaho, {E. F.G.A.} and Avokpaho, {E. F.G.A.} and A. Awasthi and {Ayala Quintanilla}, {B. P.} and U. Bacha and K. Balakrishnan and A. Barac and Barker-Collo, {S. L.} and S. Mohammed and L. Barregard and M. Petzold and Mitchell, {P. B.} and R. Gupta and Mackay, {M. T.} and K. Pesudovs",
year = "2016",
month = oct,
day = "8",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6",
language = "English",
volume = "388",
pages = "1545--1602",
journal = "Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Lancet",
number = "10053",
}