TY - JOUR
T1 - Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050
T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
AU - Global Nutrition Target Collaborators
AU - Arndt, Michael Benjamin
AU - Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis
AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen
AU - Abd ElHafeez, Samar
AU - Abdelmasseh, Michael
AU - Abd-Elsalam, Sherief
AU - Abdulah, Deldar Morad
AU - Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi
AU - Abidi, Hassan
AU - Abiodun, Olumide
AU - Aboagye, Richard Gyan
AU - Abolhassani, Hassan
AU - Abtew, Yonas Derso
AU - Abu-Gharbieh, Eman
AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME
AU - Acuna, Juan Manuel
AU - Adamu, Kidist
AU - Adane, Denberu Eshetie
AU - Addo, Isaac Yeboah
AU - Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo
AU - Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
AU - Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
AU - Afrashteh, Fatemeh
AU - Afzal, Saira
AU - Agodi, Antonella
AU - Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku
AU - Ahmad, Aqeel
AU - Ahmad, Sajjad
AU - Ahmad, Tauseef
AU - Ahmadi, Ali
AU - Ahmed, Ali
AU - Ahmed, Luai A.A.
AU - Ajami, Marjan
AU - Aji, Budi
AU - Akbarialiabad, Hossein
AU - Akonde, Maxwell
AU - Al Hamad, Hanadi
AU - Al Thaher, Yazan
AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad
AU - Alhabib, Khalid F.
AU - Alhassan, Robert Kaba
AU - Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir
AU - Ali, Syed Shujait
AU - Alimohamadi, Yousef
AU - Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
AU - Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M.
AU - Almustanyir, Sami
AU - Alomari, Mahmoud A.
AU - Al-Tammemi, Alaa B.
AU - Altirkawi, Khalid A.
AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
AU - Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.
AU - Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena
AU - Amin, Tarek Tawfik
AU - Amiri, Sohrab
AU - Amu, Hubert
AU - Amugsi, Dickson A.
AU - Anagaw, Tadele Fentabel Fentabil
AU - Ancuceanu, Robert
AU - Angappan, Dhanalakshmi
AU - Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza
AU - Antriyandarti, Ernoiz
AU - Anvari, Davood
AU - Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward
AU - Arabloo, Jalal
AU - Aravkin, Aleksandr Y.
AU - Ariffin, Hany
AU - Aripov, Timur
AU - Arkew, Mesay
AU - Armocida, Benedetta
AU - Arumugam, Ashokan
AU - Aryastami, Ni Ketut
AU - Asaad, Malke
AU - Asemi, Zatollah
AU - Asemu, Mulu Tiruneh
AU - Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad
AU - Astell-Burt, Thomas
AU - Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin
AU - Atomsa, Gamechu Hunde
AU - Atorkey, Prince
AU - Atout, Maha Moh d.Wahbi
AU - Aujayeb, Avinash
AU - Awoke, Mamaru Ayenew
AU - Azadnajafabad, Sina
AU - Azevedo, Rui M.S.
AU - B, Darshan B.
AU - Badiye, Ashish D.
AU - Baghcheghi, Nayereh
AU - Bagheri, Nasser
AU - Bagherieh, Sara
AU - Baig, Atif Amin
AU - Baker, Jennifer L.
AU - Balasubramanian, Madhan
AU - Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin
AU - Banach, Maciej
AU - Banik, Palash Chandra
AU - Barchitta, Martina
AU - Bärnighausen, Till Winfried
AU - Barr, Ronald D.
AU - Barrow, Amadou
AU - Barua, Lingkan
AU - Bashiri, Azadeh
AU - Baskaran, Pritish
AU - Basu, Saurav
AU - Bekele, Alehegn
AU - Belay, Sefealem Assefa
AU - Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal
AU - Bell, Shelly L.
AU - Belo, Luis
AU - Bennett, Derrick A.
AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.
AU - Beressa, Girma
AU - Bermudez, Amiel Nazer C.
AU - Beyene, Habtamu B.
AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha
AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj
AU - Bhaskar, Sonu
AU - Bhattacharjee, Natalia V.
AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
AU - Bitaraf, Saeid
AU - Bodolica, Virginia
AU - Bonakdar Hashemi, Milad
AU - Braithwaite, Dejana
AU - Butt, Muhammad Hammad
AU - Butt, Zahid A.
AU - Calina, Daniela
AU - Cámera, Luis Alberto
AU - Campos, Luciana Aparecida
AU - Cao, Chao
AU - Cárdenas, Rosario
AU - Carvalho, Márcia
AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.
AU - Catapano, Alberico L.
AU - Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia
AU - Cembranel, Francieli
AU - Cerin, Ester
AU - Chadwick, Joshua
AU - Chalek, Julian
AU - Chandrasekar, Eeshwar K.
AU - Charan, Jaykaran
AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar
AU - Chauhan, Kirti
AU - Chien, Ju Huei
AU - Chitheer, Abdulaal
AU - Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan
AU - Chowdhury, Enayet Karim
AU - Chu, Dinh Toi
AU - Chukwu, Isaac Sunday
AU - Chung, Sheng Chia
AU - Claro, Rafael M.
AU - Columbus, Alyssa
AU - Cortese, Samuele
AU - Cruz-Martins, Natalia
AU - Dabo, Bashir
AU - Dadras, Omid
AU - Dai, Xiaochen
AU - D'Amico, Emanuele
AU - Dandona, Lalit
AU - Dandona, Rakhi
AU - Darban, Isaac
AU - Darmstadt, Gary L.
AU - Darwesh, Aso Mohammad
AU - Darwish, Amira Hamed
AU - Das, Jai K.
AU - Das, Saswati
AU - Davletov, Kairat
AU - De la Hoz, Fernando Pio
AU - Debele, Aklilu Tamire
AU - Demeke, Dessalegn
AU - Demissie, Solomon
AU - Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar
AU - Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
AU - Desta, Abebaw Alemayehu
AU - Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
AU - Dhimal, Meghnath
AU - Dias da Silva, Diana
AU - Diaz, Daniel
AU - Diress, Mengistie
AU - Djalalinia, Shirin
AU - Doaei, Saeid
AU - Dongarwar, Deepa
AU - Dsouza, Haneil Larson
AU - Edalati, Sareh
AU - Edinur, Hisham Atan
AU - Ekholuenetale, Michael
AU - Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus
AU - Elbarazi, Iffat
AU - Elgendy, Islam Y.
AU - Elhadi, Muhammed
AU - Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou
AU - Eshetu, Habitu Birhan
AU - Espinosa-Montero, Juan
AU - Esubalew, Habtamu
AU - Etaee, Farshid
AU - Etafa, Werku
AU - Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis
AU - Fakhradiyev, Ildar Ravisovich
AU - Falzone, Luca
AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e.Sá
AU - Farmer, Sam
AU - Fasanmi, Abidemi Omolara
AU - Fatehizadeh, Ali
AU - Feigin, Valery L.
AU - Feizkhah, Alireza
AU - Feng, Xiaoqi
AU - Ferrara, Pietro
AU - Fetensa, Getahun
AU - Fischer, Florian
AU - Fitzgerald, Ryan
AU - Flood, David
AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.
AU - Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin
AU - Fowobaje, Kayode Raphael
AU - Franklin, Richard Charles
AU - Fukumoto, Takeshi
AU - Gadanya, Muktar A.
AU - Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji
AU - Gaihre, Santosh
AU - Gakidou, Emmanuela
AU - Galali, Yaseen
AU - Galehdar, Nasrin
AU - Gardner, William M.
AU - Garg, Priyanka
AU - Gebremeskel, Teferi Gebru
AU - Gerema, Urge
AU - Getacher, Lemma
AU - Getachew, Motuma Erena
AU - Getawa, Solomon
AU - Ghaffari, Kazem
AU - Ghamari, Seyyed Hadi
AU - Ghasemi Nour, Mohammad
AU - Ghassemi, Fariba
AU - Ghith, Nermin
AU - Gholamalizadeh, Maryam
AU - Gholami, Ali
AU - Gholamrezanezhad, Ali
AU - Ghozy, Sherief
AU - Gill, Paramjit Singh
AU - Gill, Tiffany K.
AU - Glasbey, James C.
AU - Golechha, Mahaveer
AU - Goleij, Pouya
AU - Kaambwa, Billingsley
AU - Kandel, Himal
AU - Melaku, Yohannes Adama
AU - Nguyen, Phuong The
AU - Shorofi, Seyed Afshin
AU - Wassie, Molla Mesele
AU - Yadav, Lalit
PY - 2024/12/21
Y1 - 2024/12/21
N2 - Background: The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from 2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories. Methods: The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date. Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities. Findings: In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201 countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46–0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were –0·5% and –1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that 94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 countries will meet two targets, and 89 countries will not meet any targets. We project that seven countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, 28 for child stunting, and 101 for child wasting, and no countries will meet the targets for low birthweight, child overweight, and anaemia. In 2050, we project that seven additional countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, five for low birthweight, 96 for child stunting, nine for child wasting, and one for child overweight, and no countries are projected to meet the anaemia target. Interpretation: Based on current levels and past trends, few GNTs will be met by 2030. Major reductions in attributable burden for exclusive breastfeeding and anthropometric indicators should be recognised as huge scientific and policy successes, but the comparative lack of progress in reducing the prevalence of each, along with stagnant anaemia in women of reproductive age and widespread increases in child overweight, suggests a tenuous status quo. Continued investment in preventive and treatment efforts for acute childhood illness is crucial to prevent backsliding. Parallel development of effective treatments, along with commitment to multisectoral, long-term policies to address the determinants and causes of suboptimal nutrition, are sorely needed to gain ground. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
AB - Background: The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from 2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories. Methods: The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date. Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities. Findings: In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201 countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46–0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were –0·5% and –1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that 94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 countries will meet two targets, and 89 countries will not meet any targets. We project that seven countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, 28 for child stunting, and 101 for child wasting, and no countries will meet the targets for low birthweight, child overweight, and anaemia. In 2050, we project that seven additional countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, five for low birthweight, 96 for child stunting, nine for child wasting, and one for child overweight, and no countries are projected to meet the anaemia target. Interpretation: Based on current levels and past trends, few GNTs will be met by 2030. Major reductions in attributable burden for exclusive breastfeeding and anthropometric indicators should be recognised as huge scientific and policy successes, but the comparative lack of progress in reducing the prevalence of each, along with stagnant anaemia in women of reproductive age and widespread increases in child overweight, suggests a tenuous status quo. Continued investment in preventive and treatment efforts for acute childhood illness is crucial to prevent backsliding. Parallel development of effective treatments, along with commitment to multisectoral, long-term policies to address the determinants and causes of suboptimal nutrition, are sorely needed to gain ground. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
KW - health system
KW - health service
KW - health policy
KW - nutrition
KW - Global Burden of Disease
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85212322880&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://purl.org/au-research/grants/NHMRC/2009776
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01821-X
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01821-X
M3 - Article
C2 - 39667386
AN - SCOPUS:85212322880
SN - 0140-6736
VL - 404
SP - 2543
EP - 2583
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 10471
ER -