Historical, current, and future climate niche of the red dwarf honey bee across its native range

Knowledge of spatial patterns of climatically suitable habitats, and species range contractions/expansions, or shifts due to changing climate are important to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tools currently available for evaluating species’ response to anthropogenic or natural changes. We used ENMs to evaluate potential effects of future climate changes on the distribution range of a keystone pollinator, Apis florea Fabricius 1787 (Apidae: Apini), across its native range. We also provided a picture of the potential paleodistribution range of this species to complement future genetic/phylogenetic studies. In all assessed scenarios (i.e past, current, and future), the species was limited to its current native range and the mean temperature of the coldest season was the most key determinative factor affecting the species’ climate niche. The projection results revealed that the extent of climatically suitable habitats of the species was probably more than current in the past time periods and will increase in the future. Our findings of the consequences of climate changes on geographical distributions of this pollinator facilitate future management efforts for the species conservation by the identification of potential habitats where A. florea may already exist, prioritizing key habitats within the species’ native range under the current and future conditions, and recognizing regions where it is likely to spread its range.