Improving Cardiovascular Disease Prediction With Machine Learning Using Mental Health Data: A Prospective UK Biobank Study

Background: Robust and accurate prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk facilitates early intervention to benefit patients. The intricate relationship between mental health disorders and CVD is widely recognized. However, existing models often overlook psychological factors, relying on a limited set of clinical and lifestyle parameters, or being developed on restricted population subsets. Objectives: This study aims to assess the impact of integrating psychological data into a novel machine learning (ML) approach on enhancing CVD prediction performance. Methods: Using a comprehensive UK Biobank data set (n = 375,145), the correlation between CVD and traditional and psychological risk factors was examined. CVD included hypertensive disease, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and arrhythmias. An ensemble ML model containing 5 constituent algorithms (decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, support vector machine, and deep neural network) was tested for its ability to predict CVD based on 2 training data sets: using traditional CVD risk factors alone, or using a combination of traditional and psychological risk factors. Results: A total of 375,145 subjects with normal health status and with CVD were included. The ensemble ML model could predict CVD with 71.31% accuracy using traditional CVD risk factors alone. However, by adding psychological factors to the training data, accuracy increased to 85.13%. The accuracy and robustness of the ensemble ML model outperformed all 5 constituent learning algorithms. Conclusions: Incorporating mental health assessment data within an ensemble ML model results in a significantly improved, highly accurate, CVD prediction model, outperforming traditional risk factor prediction alone.