Improving Decision-Making Processes in Health: Is It Time for (Disease-Specific) Reference Models?

Decision-analytic models are often required to evaluate the value of new health technologies such as medical devices and pharmaceuticals. Within health technology assessment (HTA) submissions, the role of modelling is principally to assess whether a proposed new technology is cost effective by predicting its long-term costs and benefits compared with relevant comparators such as usual care. In countries such as Australia and the UK, such evidence is commonly used as one of the key inputs into the decision-making process to inform resource allocation decisions. Given the impact of model-based evaluations on funding decisions, it is critical to develop and consistently use credible models. However, important concerns about decision-analytic modelling still remain [1].

In this editorial, we focus on one important concern within the decision-making process: the impact of alternative model structural choices on the comparability and accuracy of economic evaluations, and how (disease-specific) reference models can potentially address this.