Labor is set for a big win in the South Australian election. But will One Nation cause ructions?

South Australians head to the polls on March 21, with Premier Peter Malinauskas’s Labor Party on track to win by a landslide.

But while a predicted landslide in a state election would not normally garner deep national attention, the SA election will be closely watched this time as a microcosm of the changing dynamics of Australian politics.

The headline two-party preferred figure of 61–39% in favour of Labor is masking the broader splintering of the right side of politics. The Liberals are haemorrhaging votes to One Nation, which leads them on the primary vote by 20–19%.