Multiple anchors and the MOLE: Benefits for elicitation

Marianne H. Clausen, Matthew B. Welsh

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Anchoring is a well-known, robust effect causing estimates to be biased towards previously seen values - regardless of their relevance. Reducing anchoring bias is important for optimizing estimation. Herein, we tested the MOLE (More-Or-Less Elicitation) tool's ability to limit the impact of anchors on estimates. In a direct elicitation task, 62 participants' best estimates correlated with anchor values at 0.27 whereas, when using the MOLE, this relationship disappeared (r = .02). Results also showed, however, that expertise reduces the impact of anchoring (r = -0.46). We conclude that use of the MOLE assists in avoiding anchoring and that this will be most helpful in areas of high uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 40th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, CogSci 2018
PublisherThe Cognitive Science Society
Pages1506-1511
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9780991196784
ISBN (Print)9781510872059
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Externally publishedYes
Event40th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Changing Minds, CogSci 2018 - Madison, United States
Duration: 25 Jul 201828 Jul 2018

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 40th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, CogSci 2018

Conference

Conference40th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Changing Minds, CogSci 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityMadison
Period25/07/1828/07/18

Keywords

  • accuracy
  • anchoring
  • decision making
  • elicitation
  • expertise
  • repeated judgement, MOLE

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