TY - JOUR
T1 - Online interest in ADHD predicts ADHD medication prescriptions in Australia from 2004 to 2023
T2 - A time-series analysis revealing COVID-19-related acceleration
AU - Sy-Cherng Woon, Luke
AU - Smith, David
AU - Allison, Stephen
AU - Looi, Jeffrey C.L.
AU - Bastiampillai, Tarun
PY - 2025/1/18
Y1 - 2025/1/18
N2 - Objective: Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication prescriptions in Australia have grown sharply in recent years. We examined the association between online interest in ADHD and prescriptions. Methods: Monthly Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and Repatriation PBS (RPBS) Item Reports of ADHD prescriptions and Australian ADHD-related Google Trends (GT) data (2004–2023) were sourced. We modelled the lagged effect of GT on ADHD medication prescriptions, using an autoregressive moving average model with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, adjusting for COVID-19 lockdown effects. Results were compared to a model of GT for pain-related searches and PBS/RPBS opioid prescriptions, and counterfactual alternatives: (1) ADHD-related GT and opioid prescriptions and (2) pain-related GT and ADHD prescriptions. We descriptively analysed additional ADHD-related online news data. Results: Annual prescriptions doubled from 1,424,904 in 2020 to 3,112,072 in 2023. ADHD medication prescriptions and ADHD-related GT considerably increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. GT had a statistically significant positive lagged association with ADHD prescriptions. Comparator models did not show statistically significant associations between GT and prescriptions. Online news data supported recently increased public interest in ADHD. Conclusions: ADHD-related online interest predicts increased ADHD prescriptions, which was accentuated during the pandemic. Studies are needed to evaluate causal pathways, health information quality and sociodemographic determinants.
AB - Objective: Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication prescriptions in Australia have grown sharply in recent years. We examined the association between online interest in ADHD and prescriptions. Methods: Monthly Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and Repatriation PBS (RPBS) Item Reports of ADHD prescriptions and Australian ADHD-related Google Trends (GT) data (2004–2023) were sourced. We modelled the lagged effect of GT on ADHD medication prescriptions, using an autoregressive moving average model with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, adjusting for COVID-19 lockdown effects. Results were compared to a model of GT for pain-related searches and PBS/RPBS opioid prescriptions, and counterfactual alternatives: (1) ADHD-related GT and opioid prescriptions and (2) pain-related GT and ADHD prescriptions. We descriptively analysed additional ADHD-related online news data. Results: Annual prescriptions doubled from 1,424,904 in 2020 to 3,112,072 in 2023. ADHD medication prescriptions and ADHD-related GT considerably increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. GT had a statistically significant positive lagged association with ADHD prescriptions. Comparator models did not show statistically significant associations between GT and prescriptions. Online news data supported recently increased public interest in ADHD. Conclusions: ADHD-related online interest predicts increased ADHD prescriptions, which was accentuated during the pandemic. Studies are needed to evaluate causal pathways, health information quality and sociodemographic determinants.
KW - attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder
KW - central stimulants
KW - COVID-19
KW - drug prescriptions
KW - Internet
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85215536701&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/10398562251315006
DO - 10.1177/10398562251315006
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85215536701
SN - 1039-8562
JO - Australasian Psychiatry
JF - Australasian Psychiatry
ER -
