Poor Long-Term Survival in Patients With Moderate Aortic Stenosis

Geoff Strange, Simon Stewart, David Celermajer, David Prior, Gregory M. Scalia, Thomas Marwick, Marcus Ilton, Majo Joseph, Jim Codde, David Playford, National Echocardiography Database of Australia contributing sites

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87 Citations (Scopus)


Background: Historical data suggesting poor survival in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) who do not undergo treatment are largely confined to patients with severe AS. Objectives: This study sought to determine the prognostic impact of all levels of native valvular AS. Methods: Severity of AS was characterized by convention and by statistical distribution in 122,809 male patients (mean age 61 ± 17 years) and 118,494 female patients (mean age 62 ± 19 years), with measured aortic valve (AV) mean gradient, peak velocity, and/or area. The relationship between AS severity and survival was then examined during median 1,208 days (interquartile range: 598 to 2,177 days) of follow-up. Patients with previous aortic valve intervention were excluded. Results: Overall, 16,129 (6.7%), 3,315 (1.4%), and 6,383 (2.6%) patients had mild, moderate, and severe AS, respectively. On an adjusted basis (vs. no AS; 5-year mortality 19%), patients with mild to severe AS had an increasing risk of long-term mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.44 to 2.09; p < 0.001 for all comparisons). The 5-year mortality was 56% and 67%, respectively, in those with moderate AS (mean gradient 20.0 to 39.0 mm Hg/peak velocity 3.0 to 3.9 m/s) and severe AS (≥40.0 mm Hg, ≥4.0 m/s, or AV area <1.0 cm2 in low-flow, low-gradient severe AS). A markedly increased risk of death from all causes (5-year mortality >50%) and cardiovascular disease was evident from a mean AV gradient >20.0 mm Hg (moderate AS) after adjusting for age, sex, left ventricular systolic or diastolic dysfunction, and aortic regurgitation. Conclusions: These data confirm that when left untreated, severe AS is associated with poor long-term survival. Moreover, they also suggest poor survival rates in patients with moderate AS.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1851-1863
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of The American College of Cardiology
Issue number15
Publication statusPublished - 15 Oct 2019


  • aortic stenosis
  • cohort
  • mortality


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