Predictors of 1-Year Survival after Endovascular Aneurysm Repair

Robert A. Fitridge, Margaret Boult, Tania De Loryn, Prudence A. Cowled, Mary B. Barnes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective/background The purpose of this study was to determine the preoperative variables that best predict 1-year survival following elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), a period of time that would suggest the patient had benefited from the procedure. Most EVAR survival studies focus on early and late survival; scant information is available for 1-year survival.

Methods Data from two Australian audits of EVAR (1999-2001 and 2009-13) were combined (n = 1,647). Preoperative variables included routine demographic data, clinical health assessments, computed tomography-derived anatomical data, and all-cause mortality. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions determined which variables best predicted 1-year survival.

Results One-year survival after EVAR was 93.7% (1,544/1,647) and 30-day survival was 98.4% (1,620/1,647). Univariate analyses found that nine preoperative variables were significantly associated with 1-year survival. Five variables were included in the final multivariate model: American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, aneurysm diameter, creatinine, respiratory assessment, and severity of iliac artery calcification (receiver-operator curve 0.717, R2 =.117). Predicted 1-year survival ranged from 98.6% to 68.0%, based on differences in aneurysm size and patient comorbidities.

Conclusion Personalised 1-year survival risk enables surgeons and patients to consider seriously the risks and benefits of EVAR prior to surgery.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)528-534
Number of pages7
JournalEuropean Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery
Volume51
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2016
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Abdominal aortic aneurysm
  • Mortality
  • Endovascular procedures

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