Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study

Adam Fambiatos; Vilija Jokubaitis; Dana Horakova; Eva Kubala Havrdova; Maria Trojano; Alexandre Prat; Marc Girard; Pierre Duquette; Alessandra Lugaresi; Guillermo Izquierdo; Francois Grand’Maison; Pierre Grammond; Patrizia Sola; Diana Ferraro; Raed Alroughani; Murat Terzi; Raymond Hupperts; Cavit Boz; Jeannette Lechner-Scott; Eugenio Pucci; Roberto Bergamaschi; Vincent Van Pesch; Serkan Ozakbas; Franco Granella; Recai Turkoglu; Gerardo Iuliano; Daniele Spitaleri; Pamela McCombe; Claudio Solaro; Mark Slee; Radek Ampapa; Aysun Soysal; Thor Petersen; Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo; Freek Verheul; Julie Prevost; Youssef Sidhom; Bart Van Wijmeersch; Steve Vucic; Edgardo Cristiano; Maria Laura Saladino; Norma Deri; Michael Barnett; Javier Olascoaga; Fraser Moore; Olga Skibina; Orla Gray; Yara Fragoso; Bassem Yamout; Cameron Shaw; Bhim Singhal; Neil Shuey; Suzanne Hodgkinson; Ayse Altintas; Talal Al-Harbi; Tunde Csepany; Bruce Taylor; Jordana Hughes; Jae Kwan Jun; Anneke van der Walt; Tim Spelman; Helmut Butzkueven; Tomas Kalincik

doi:10.1177/1352458519868990

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study

Adam Fambiatos, Vilija Jokubaitis, Dana Horakova, Eva Kubala Havrdova, Maria Trojano, Alexandre Prat, Marc Girard, Pierre Duquette, Alessandra Lugaresi, Guillermo Izquierdo, Francois Grand’Maison, Pierre Grammond, Patrizia Sola, Diana Ferraro, Raed Alroughani, Murat Terzi, Raymond Hupperts, Cavit Boz, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Eugenio PucciRoberto Bergamaschi, Vincent Van Pesch, Serkan Ozakbas, Franco Granella, Recai Turkoglu, Gerardo Iuliano, Daniele Spitaleri, Pamela McCombe, Claudio Solaro, Mark Slee, Radek Ampapa, Aysun Soysal, Thor Petersen, Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Freek Verheul, Julie Prevost, Youssef Sidhom, Bart Van Wijmeersch, Steve Vucic, Edgardo Cristiano, Maria Laura Saladino, Norma Deri, Michael Barnett, Javier Olascoaga, Fraser Moore, Olga Skibina, Orla Gray, Yara Fragoso, Bassem Yamout, Cameron Shaw, Bhim Singhal, Neil Shuey, Suzanne Hodgkinson, Ayse Altintas, Talal Al-Harbi, Tunde Csepany, Bruce Taylor, Jordana Hughes, Jae Kwan Jun, Anneke van der Walt, Tim Spelman, Helmut Butzkueven, Tomas Kalincik

Flinders University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

54 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Methods: Patients with adult-onset relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. Conclusion: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	79-90
Number of pages	12
Journal	Multiple Sclerosis Journal
Volume	26
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/1352458519868990
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2020

Keywords

disease modifying therapies
multiple sclerosis
prediction
prognostics
SPMS

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Fambiatos, A., Jokubaitis, V., Horakova, D., Kubala Havrdova, E., Trojano, M., Prat, A., Girard, M., Duquette, P., Lugaresi, A., Izquierdo, G., Grand’Maison, F., Grammond, P., Sola, P., Ferraro, D., Alroughani, R., Terzi, M., Hupperts, R., Boz, C., Lechner-Scott, J., ... Kalincik, T. (2020). Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study. Multiple Sclerosis Journal, 26(1), 79-90. https://doi.org/10.1177/1352458519868990

@article{96bbcbe76b424abfa0f360d69a8491e6,

title = "Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study",

abstract = "Background: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Methods: Patients with adult-onset relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. Conclusion: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.",

keywords = "disease modifying therapies, multiple sclerosis, prediction, prognostics, SPMS",

author = "Adam Fambiatos and Vilija Jokubaitis and Dana Horakova and {Kubala Havrdova}, Eva and Maria Trojano and Alexandre Prat and Marc Girard and Pierre Duquette and Alessandra Lugaresi and Guillermo Izquierdo and Francois Grand{\textquoteright}Maison and Pierre Grammond and Patrizia Sola and Diana Ferraro and Raed Alroughani and Murat Terzi and Raymond Hupperts and Cavit Boz and Jeannette Lechner-Scott and Eugenio Pucci and Roberto Bergamaschi and {Van Pesch}, Vincent and Serkan Ozakbas and Franco Granella and Recai Turkoglu and Gerardo Iuliano and Daniele Spitaleri and Pamela McCombe and Claudio Solaro and Mark Slee and Radek Ampapa and Aysun Soysal and Thor Petersen and Sanchez-Menoyo, {Jose Luis} and Freek Verheul and Julie Prevost and Youssef Sidhom and {Van Wijmeersch}, Bart and Steve Vucic and Edgardo Cristiano and Saladino, {Maria Laura} and Norma Deri and Michael Barnett and Javier Olascoaga and Fraser Moore and Olga Skibina and Orla Gray and Yara Fragoso and Bassem Yamout and Cameron Shaw and Bhim Singhal and Neil Shuey and Suzanne Hodgkinson and Ayse Altintas and Talal Al-Harbi and Tunde Csepany and Bruce Taylor and Jordana Hughes and Jun, {Jae Kwan} and {van der Walt}, Anneke and Tim Spelman and Helmut Butzkueven and Tomas Kalincik",

year = "2020",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1177/1352458519868990",

language = "English",

volume = "26",

pages = "79--90",

journal = "Multiple Sclerosis Journal",

issn = "1352-4585",

publisher = "SAGE Publications Ltd",

number = "1",

}

Fambiatos, A, Jokubaitis, V, Horakova, D, Kubala Havrdova, E, Trojano, M, Prat, A, Girard, M, Duquette, P, Lugaresi, A, Izquierdo, G, Grand’Maison, F, Grammond, P, Sola, P, Ferraro, D, Alroughani, R, Terzi, M, Hupperts, R, Boz, C, Lechner-Scott, J, Pucci, E, Bergamaschi, R, Van Pesch, V, Ozakbas, S, Granella, F, Turkoglu, R, Iuliano, G, Spitaleri, D, McCombe, P, Solaro, C, Slee, M, Ampapa, R, Soysal, A, Petersen, T, Sanchez-Menoyo, JL, Verheul, F, Prevost, J, Sidhom, Y, Van Wijmeersch, B, Vucic, S, Cristiano, E, Saladino, ML, Deri, N, Barnett, M, Olascoaga, J, Moore, F, Skibina, O, Gray, O, Fragoso, Y, Yamout, B, Shaw, C, Singhal, B, Shuey, N, Hodgkinson, S, Altintas, A, Al-Harbi, T, Csepany, T, Taylor, B, Hughes, J, Jun, JK, van der Walt, A, Spelman, T, Butzkueven, H & Kalincik, T 2020, 'Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study', Multiple Sclerosis Journal, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 79-90. https://doi.org/10.1177/1352458519868990

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

T2 - a longitudinal study

AU - Fambiatos, Adam

AU - Jokubaitis, Vilija

AU - Horakova, Dana

AU - Kubala Havrdova, Eva

AU - Trojano, Maria

AU - Prat, Alexandre

AU - Girard, Marc

AU - Duquette, Pierre

AU - Lugaresi, Alessandra

AU - Izquierdo, Guillermo

AU - Grand’Maison, Francois

AU - Grammond, Pierre

AU - Sola, Patrizia

AU - Ferraro, Diana

AU - Alroughani, Raed

AU - Terzi, Murat

AU - Hupperts, Raymond

AU - Boz, Cavit

AU - Lechner-Scott, Jeannette

AU - Pucci, Eugenio

AU - Bergamaschi, Roberto

AU - Van Pesch, Vincent

AU - Ozakbas, Serkan

AU - Granella, Franco

AU - Turkoglu, Recai

AU - Iuliano, Gerardo

AU - Spitaleri, Daniele

AU - McCombe, Pamela

AU - Solaro, Claudio

AU - Slee, Mark

AU - Ampapa, Radek

AU - Soysal, Aysun

AU - Petersen, Thor

AU - Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis

AU - Verheul, Freek

AU - Prevost, Julie

AU - Sidhom, Youssef

AU - Van Wijmeersch, Bart

AU - Vucic, Steve

AU - Cristiano, Edgardo

AU - Saladino, Maria Laura

AU - Deri, Norma

AU - Barnett, Michael

AU - Olascoaga, Javier

AU - Moore, Fraser

AU - Skibina, Olga

AU - Gray, Orla

AU - Fragoso, Yara

AU - Yamout, Bassem

AU - Shaw, Cameron

AU - Singhal, Bhim

AU - Shuey, Neil

AU - Hodgkinson, Suzanne

AU - Altintas, Ayse

AU - Al-Harbi, Talal

AU - Csepany, Tunde

AU - Taylor, Bruce

AU - Hughes, Jordana

AU - Jun, Jae Kwan

AU - van der Walt, Anneke

AU - Spelman, Tim

AU - Butzkueven, Helmut

AU - Kalincik, Tomas

PY - 2020/1/1

Y1 - 2020/1/1

N2 - Background: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Methods: Patients with adult-onset relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. Conclusion: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.

AB - Background: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Methods: Patients with adult-onset relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. Conclusion: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.

KW - disease modifying therapies

KW - multiple sclerosis

KW - prediction

KW - prognostics

KW - SPMS

U2 - 10.1177/1352458519868990

DO - 10.1177/1352458519868990

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85071005910

SN - 1352-4585

VL - 26

SP - 79

EP - 90

JO - Multiple Sclerosis Journal

JF - Multiple Sclerosis Journal

IS - 1

ER -

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal study

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