Six Failures of the Doherty Modelling Report

Jeremy P. Howard; Kalinda E Griffiths; Rachel L. Thomas

doi:10.31219/osf.io/an2w6

Six Failures of the Doherty Modelling Report

Jeremy P. Howard, Kalinda E Griffiths, Rachel L. Thomas

Research output: Working paper/Preprint › Preprint

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Abstract

The Doherty Model is being used in Australia to justify partial reopening with 70% of adults vaccinated [Doherty Institute, 2021]. However, we have identified six critical failures of the model: failure to model uncertainties; failure to use appropriate premises; failure to model subgroup vaccine takeup; failure to correctly model child transmission; failure to include relevant outcomes; and
failure to consider longer time-frames. These failures result in missing over 200,000 cases of long covid in children, underestimating death counts by a factor of up to ten, underestimating the severity of the delta variant by a factor of two, and greatly underestimating the potential downside risk.

Original language	English
Publisher	OSF Preprints
Number of pages	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/an2w6
Publication status	Submitted - 7 Sept 2021
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

SARS-CoV-2
Modeling
Epidemiology

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.31219/osf.io/an2w6Licence: CC BY

PreprintSubmitted manuscript, 101 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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Six Failures of the Doherty Modelling Report

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Cite this