Testing likelihood ratios produced from complex DNA profiles

The performance of any model used to analyse DNA profile evidence should be tested using simulation, large scale validation studies based on ground-truth cases, or alignment with trends predicted by theory. We investigate a number of diagnostics to assess the performance of the model using H_d true tests. Of particular focus in this work is the proportion of comparisons to non-contributors that yield a likelihood ratio (LR) higher than or equal to the likelihood ratio of a known contributor (LR_POI), designated as p, and the average LR for H_d true tests. Theory predicts that p should always be less than or equal to 1/LR_POI and hence the observation of this in any particular case is of limited use. A better diagnostic is the average LR for H_d true which should be near to 1. We test the performance of a continuous interpretation model on nine DNA profiles of varying quality and complexity and verify the theoretical expectations.