The distribution potential of Melinis minutiflora (molasses grass) under current and future climates for Europe using CLIMEX tool

Anthropogenic climate change is causing recurrent and intense forest fires, and the interaction of these factors with invasions of exotic grass species can rapidly modify ecosystems. There is a direct link between high temperatures and the recurrence of forest fires. In the case of invasive species, the lack of long-term assessments and the limited availability of data prevent the development of general models to help predict the future impacts of these species. In this study, the objectives were to develop a model for Melinis minutiflora P.Beauv. to determine areas potentially suitable for invasion with data from current climate projections and future climate projections (2050, 2070, 2100), and to determine the model’s most sensitive parameters. CLIMEX was used to model current and future projections. For the global distribution of M. minutiflora in the years 2050, 2070 and 2100, the Global Climate Model - GCM, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) was used, in an A2 emissions scenario. Under current climatic conditions, M. minutiflora is distributed in various parts of the world, expanding into tropical and subtropical regions. The parameters relating to humidity, temperature and cold stress showed greater sensitivity in each aptitude category. In the future climate scenarios 2050, 2070 and 2100 M. minutiflora will change its distribution, migrating to higher latitudes or higher altitudes as the temperature increases. When climate change leads to expanding of the global range of species, strategies must be analyzed so that invasive plant management and control plans are often considered.