The effect of a user selected number of contributors within the LR assignment

Hannah Kelly, Jo Anne Bright, Maarten Kruijver, Duncan Taylor, John Buckleton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The assignment of the number of contributors (N) to a forensic DNA profile is undertaken as part of the interpretation process. There is no requirement for N to be the same for both propositions within the likelihood ratio framework. ISFG recommendations on mixture interpretation suggest that there may be times where prosecution and defence both specify their own, different N. We investigate how this affects the likelihood ratio (LR) for 100 mixed DNA profiles. We show that the addition of a superfluous unknown contributor within a proposition tends to increase the likelihood because the profile can always be better described with more contributors but the priors on the additional parameters and an extra genotype can ultimately reduce the likelihood ratio. Additionally, we find that choosing improbable values for N given different propositions can lead to misleading LRs. Specifically, we find that LRs can both increase and decrease compared to the value obtained using the ground truth N. Choosing a single N which maximizes the probability of the observations for each party tends to approximate an exhaustive stratified LR that takes into account different Ns with different prior probabilities.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages14
JournalAustralian Journal of Forensic Sciences
Early online date3 Jan 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 3 Jan 2021

Keywords

  • DNA mixtures
  • forensic DNA analysis
  • forensic software
  • likelihood ratio
  • number of contributors
  • probabilistic genotyping
  • STRmix

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