The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Norma B. Bulamu; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Lalit Yadav

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Norma B. Bulamu, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Lalit Yadav

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

450 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	563-591
Number of pages	29
Journal	The Lancet
Volume	400
Issue number	10352
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6
Publication status	Published - 20 Aug 2022

Keywords

Female
Global Burden of Disease
Global Health
Humans
Male
Neoplasms
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Smoking

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Final published versionFinal published version, 3.86 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{2133976f0b214100aaf7f857d0907f14,

title = "The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. ",

keywords = "Female, Global Burden of Disease, Global Health, Humans, Male, Neoplasms, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Smoking",

author = "{GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators} and Tran, {Khanh Bao} and Lang, {Justin J.} and Kelly Compton and Rixing Xu and Acheson, {Alistair R.} and Henrikson, {Hannah Jacqueline} and Kocarnik, {Jonathan M.} and Louise Penberthy and Amirali Aali and Qamar Abbas and Behzad Abbasi and Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari and Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari and Hedayat Abbastabar and Michael Abdelmasseh and Sherief Abd-Elsalam and Abdelwahab, {Ahmed Abdelwahab} and Gholamreza Abdoli and Abdulkadir, {Hanan Abdulkadir} and Aidin Abedi and Abegaz, {Kedir Hussein} and Hassan Abidi and Aboagye, {Richard Gyan} and Hassan Abolhassani and Abdorrahim Absalan and Abtew, {Yonas Derso} and Ali, {Hiwa Abubaker} and Eman Abu-Gharbieh and Basavaprabhu Achappa and Acuna, {Juan Manuel} and Daniel Addison and Addo, {Isaac Yeboah} and Adegboye, {Oyelola A.} and Adesina, {Miracle Ayomikun} and Mohammad Adnan and Adnani, {Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah} and Advani, {Shailesh M.} and Sumia Afrin and Afzal, {Muhammad Sohail} and Manik Aggarwal and Ahinkorah, {Bright Opoku} and Ahmad, {Araz Ramazan} and Rizwan Ahmad and Sajjad Ahmad and Sohail Ahmad and Sepideh Ahmadi and Haroon Ahmed and Ahmed, {Luai A.} and Ahmed, {Muktar Beshir} and Rashid, {Tarik Ahmed} and Wajeeha Aiman and Marjan Ajami and Akalu, {Gizachew Taddesse} and Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi and Addis Aklilu and Maxwell Akonde and Akunna, {Chisom Joyqueenet} and {Al Hamad}, Hanadi and Fares Alahdab and Alanezi, {Fahad Mashhour} and Alanzi, {Turki M.} and Alessy, {Saleh Ali} and Algammal, {Abdelazeem M.} and Al-Hanawi, {Mohammed Khaled} and Alhassan, {Robert Kaba} and Ali, {Beriwan Abdulqadir} and Liaqat Ali and Ali, {Syed Shujait} and Yousef Alimohamadi and Vahid Alipour and Aljunid, {Syed Mohamed} and Motasem Alkhayyat and Al-Maweri, {Sadeq Ali Ali} and Sami Almustanyir and Nivaldo Alonso and Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi and Al-Raddadi, {Rajaa M.} and Al-Rifai, {Rami H. Hani} and Al-Sabah, {Salman Khalifah} and Al-Tammemi, {Ala'a B.} and Haya Altawalah and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Firehiwot Amare and Ameyaw, {Edward Kwabena} and Dehkordi, {Javad Javad Aminian} and Amirzade-Iranaq, {Mohammad Hosein} and Hubert Amu and Amusa, {Ganiyu Adeniyi} and Robert Ancuceanu and Anderson, {Jason A.} and Animut, {Yaregal Animut} and Amir Anoushiravani and Anoushirvani, {Ali Arash} and Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam and Ansha, {Mustafa Geleto} and Benny Antony and Antwi, {Maxwell Hubert} and Anwar, {Sumadi Lukman} and Razique Anwer and Anyasodor, {Anayochukwu Edward} and Jalal Arabloo and Morteza Arab-Zozani and Olatunde Aremu and Argaw, {Ayele Mamo} and Hany Ariffin and Timur Aripov and Muhammad Arshad and Al Artaman and Judie Arulappan and Aruleba, {Raphael Taiwo} and Armin Aryannejad and Malke Asaad and Asemahagn, {Mulusew A.} and Zatollah Asemi and Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi and Tahira Ashraf and Reza Assadi and Mohammad Athar and Athari, {Seyyed Shamsadin} and Atout, {Maha Moh{\textquoteright}d Wahbi} and Sameh Attia and Avinash Aujayeb and Marcel Ausloos and Leticia Avila-Burgos and Awedew, {Atalel Fentahun} and Awoke, {Mamaru Ayenew} and Tewachew Awoke and Quintanilla, {Beatriz Paulina Ayala} and Ayana, {Tegegn Mulatu} and Ayen, {Solomon Shitu} and Davood Azadi and Sina Azadnajafabad and Saber Azami-Aghdash and Azanaw, {Melkalem Mamuye} and Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy and Jafari, {Amirhossein Azari} and Hosein Azizi and Azzam, {Ahmed Y. Y.} and Amirhesam Babajani and Muhammad Badar and Badiye, {Ashish D.} and Nayereh Baghcheghi and Nader Bagheri and Sara Bagherieh and Saeed Bahadory and Baig, {Atif Amin} and Baker, {Jennifer L.} and Ahad Bakhtiari and Bakshi, {Ravleen Kaur} and Maciej Banach and Indrajit Banerjee and Mainak Bardhan and Francesco Barone-Adesi and Fabio Barra and Amadou Barrow and Bashir, {Nasir Z.} and Azadeh Bashiri and Saurav Basu and Batiha, {Abdul-Monim Mohammad} and Aeysha Begum and Bekele, {Alehegn Bekele} and Belay, {Alemayehu Sayih} and Belete, {Melaku Ashagrie} and Belgaumi, {Uzma Iqbal} and Bell, {Arielle Wilder} and Luis Belo and Habib Benzian and Berhie, {Alemshet Yirga} and Bermudez, {Amiel Nazer C.} and Eduardo Bernabe and Bhagavathula, {Akshaya Srikanth} and Neeraj Bhala and Bhandari, {Bharti Bhandari} and Nikha Bhardwaj and Pankaj Bhardwaj and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Bhojaraja, {Vijayalakshmi S.} and Bhuyan, {Soumitra S.} and Sadia Bibi and Bilchut, {Awraris Hailu} and Bintoro, {Bagas Suryo} and Antonio Biondi and Birega, {Mesfin Geremaw Birega} and Birhan, {Habitu Eshetu} and Tone Bj{\o}rge and Oleg Blyuss and Bodicha, {Belay Boda Abule} and Bolla, {Srinivasa Rao} and Archith Boloor and Cristina Bosetti and Dejana Braithwaite and Michael Brauer and Hermann Brenner and Briko, {Andrey Nikolaevich} and Briko, {Nikolay Ivanovich} and Buchanan, {Christina Maree} and Bulamu, {Norma B.} and Bustamante-Teixeira, {Maria Teresa} and Butt, {Muhammad Hammad} and Butt, {Nadeem Shafique} and Butt, {Zahid A.} and {Caetano dos Santos}, {Florentino Luciano} and C{\'a}mera, {Luis Alberto} and Chao Cao and Yin Cao and Giulia Carreras and M{\'a}rcia Carvalho and Francieli Cembranel and Ester Cerin and Chakraborty, {Promit Ananyo} and Periklis Charalampous and Chattu, {Vijay Kumar} and Odgerel Chimed-Ochir and Chirinos-Caceres, {Jesus Lorenzo} and Cho, {Daniel Youngwhan} and Cho, {William C. S.} and Christopher, {Devasahayam J.} and Dinh-Toi Chu and Chukwu, {Isaac Sunday} and Cohen, {Aaron J.} and Joao Conde and Sanda Cort{\'e}s and Costa, {Vera Marisa} and Nat{\'a}lia Cruz-Martins and Culbreth, {Garland T.} and Omid Dadras and Dagnaw, {Fentaw Teshome} and Dahlawi, {Saad M. A.} and Xiaochen Dai and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad and Anna Danielewicz and Dao, {An Thi Minh} and Soltani, {Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh} and Darwesh, {Aso Mohammad} and Saswati Das and Davitoiu, {Dragos Virgil} and Esmaeili, {Elham Davtalab} and {De la Hoz}, {Fernando Pio} and Debela, {Sisay Abebe} and Azizallah Dehghan and Biniyam Demisse and Demisse, {Fitsum Wolde} and Edgar Denova-Guti{\'e}rrez and Afshin Derakhshani and Molla, {Meseret Derbew} and Diriba Dereje and Deribe, {Kalkidan Solomon} and Rupak Desai and Desalegn, {Markos Desalegn} and Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa and Lalit Yadav",

year = "2022",

month = aug,

day = "20",

doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6",

language = "English",

volume = "400",

pages = "563--591",

journal = "The Lancet",

issn = "0140-6736",

publisher = "Lancet",

number = "10352",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AU - GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators

AU - Tran, Khanh Bao

AU - Lang, Justin J.

AU - Compton, Kelly

AU - Xu, Rixing

AU - Acheson, Alistair R.

AU - Henrikson, Hannah Jacqueline

AU - Kocarnik, Jonathan M.

AU - Penberthy, Louise

AU - Aali, Amirali

AU - Abbas, Qamar

AU - Abbasi, Behzad

AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen

AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab

AU - Abbastabar, Hedayat

AU - Abdelmasseh, Michael

AU - Abd-Elsalam, Sherief

AU - Abdelwahab, Ahmed Abdelwahab

AU - Abdoli, Gholamreza

AU - Abdulkadir, Hanan Abdulkadir

AU - Abedi, Aidin

AU - Abegaz, Kedir Hussein

AU - Abidi, Hassan

AU - Aboagye, Richard Gyan

AU - Abolhassani, Hassan

AU - Absalan, Abdorrahim

AU - Abtew, Yonas Derso

AU - Ali, Hiwa Abubaker

AU - Abu-Gharbieh, Eman

AU - Achappa, Basavaprabhu

AU - Acuna, Juan Manuel

AU - Addison, Daniel

AU - Addo, Isaac Yeboah

AU - Adegboye, Oyelola A.

AU - Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun

AU - Adnan, Mohammad

AU - Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah

AU - Advani, Shailesh M.

AU - Afrin, Sumia

AU - Afzal, Muhammad Sohail

AU - Aggarwal, Manik

AU - Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku

AU - Ahmad, Araz Ramazan

AU - Ahmad, Rizwan

AU - Ahmad, Sajjad

AU - Ahmad, Sohail

AU - Ahmadi, Sepideh

AU - Ahmed, Haroon

AU - Ahmed, Luai A.

AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir

AU - Rashid, Tarik Ahmed

AU - Aiman, Wajeeha

AU - Ajami, Marjan

AU - Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse

AU - Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa

AU - Aklilu, Addis

AU - Akonde, Maxwell

AU - Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet

AU - Al Hamad, Hanadi

AU - Alahdab, Fares

AU - Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour

AU - Alanzi, Turki M.

AU - Alessy, Saleh Ali

AU - Algammal, Abdelazeem M.

AU - Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled

AU - Alhassan, Robert Kaba

AU - Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir

AU - Ali, Liaqat

AU - Ali, Syed Shujait

AU - Alimohamadi, Yousef

AU - Alipour, Vahid

AU - Aljunid, Syed Mohamed

AU - Alkhayyat, Motasem

AU - Al-Maweri, Sadeq Ali Ali

AU - Almustanyir, Sami

AU - Alonso, Nivaldo

AU - Alqalyoobi, Shehabaldin

AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M.

AU - Al-Rifai, Rami H. Hani

AU - Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah

AU - Al-Tammemi, Ala'a B.

AU - Altawalah, Haya

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amare, Firehiwot

AU - Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena

AU - Dehkordi, Javad Javad Aminian

AU - Amirzade-Iranaq, Mohammad Hosein

AU - Amu, Hubert

AU - Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi

AU - Ancuceanu, Robert

AU - Anderson, Jason A.

AU - Animut, Yaregal Animut

AU - Anoushiravani, Amir

AU - Anoushirvani, Ali Arash

AU - Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza

AU - Ansha, Mustafa Geleto

AU - Antony, Benny

AU - Antwi, Maxwell Hubert

AU - Anwar, Sumadi Lukman

AU - Anwer, Razique

AU - Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward

AU - Arabloo, Jalal

AU - Arab-Zozani, Morteza

AU - Aremu, Olatunde

AU - Argaw, Ayele Mamo

AU - Ariffin, Hany

AU - Aripov, Timur

AU - Arshad, Muhammad

AU - Artaman , Al

AU - Arulappan, Judie

AU - Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo

AU - Aryannejad, Armin

AU - Asaad, Malke

AU - Asemahagn, Mulusew A.

AU - Asemi, Zatollah

AU - Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad

AU - Ashraf, Tahira

AU - Assadi, Reza

AU - Athar, Mohammad

AU - Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin

AU - Atout, Maha Moh’d Wahbi

AU - Attia, Sameh

AU - Aujayeb, Avinash

AU - Ausloos, Marcel

AU - Avila-Burgos, Leticia

AU - Awedew, Atalel Fentahun

AU - Awoke, Mamaru Ayenew

AU - Awoke, Tewachew

AU - Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala

AU - Ayana, Tegegn Mulatu

AU - Ayen, Solomon Shitu

AU - Azadi, Davood

AU - Azadnajafabad, Sina

AU - Azami-Aghdash, Saber

AU - Azanaw, Melkalem Mamuye

AU - Azangou-Khyavy, Mohammadreza

AU - Jafari, Amirhossein Azari

AU - Azizi, Hosein

AU - Azzam, Ahmed Y. Y.

AU - Babajani, Amirhesam

AU - Badar, Muhammad

AU - Badiye, Ashish D.

AU - Baghcheghi, Nayereh

AU - Bagheri, Nader

AU - Bagherieh, Sara

AU - Bahadory, Saeed

AU - Baig, Atif Amin

AU - Baker, Jennifer L.

AU - Bakhtiari, Ahad

AU - Bakshi, Ravleen Kaur

AU - Banach, Maciej

AU - Banerjee, Indrajit

AU - Bardhan, Mainak

AU - Barone-Adesi, Francesco

AU - Barra, Fabio

AU - Barrow, Amadou

AU - Bashir, Nasir Z.

AU - Bashiri, Azadeh

AU - Basu, Saurav

AU - Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad

AU - Begum, Aeysha

AU - Bekele, Alehegn Bekele

AU - Belay, Alemayehu Sayih

AU - Belete, Melaku Ashagrie

AU - Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal

AU - Bell, Arielle Wilder

AU - Belo, Luis

AU - Benzian, Habib

AU - Berhie, Alemshet Yirga

AU - Bermudez, Amiel Nazer C.

AU - Bernabe, Eduardo

AU - Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth

AU - Bhala, Neeraj

AU - Bhandari, Bharti Bhandari

AU - Bhardwaj, Nikha

AU - Bhardwaj, Pankaj

AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika

AU - Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S.

AU - Bhuyan, Soumitra S.

AU - Bibi, Sadia

AU - Bilchut, Awraris Hailu

AU - Bintoro, Bagas Suryo

AU - Biondi, Antonio

AU - Birega, Mesfin Geremaw Birega

AU - Birhan, Habitu Eshetu

AU - Bjørge, Tone

AU - Blyuss, Oleg

AU - Bodicha, Belay Boda Abule

AU - Bolla, Srinivasa Rao

AU - Boloor, Archith

AU - Bosetti, Cristina

AU - Braithwaite, Dejana

AU - Brauer, Michael

AU - Brenner, Hermann

AU - Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich

AU - Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich

AU - Buchanan, Christina Maree

AU - Bulamu, Norma B.

AU - Bustamante-Teixeira, Maria Teresa

AU - Butt, Muhammad Hammad

AU - Butt, Nadeem Shafique

AU - Butt, Zahid A.

AU - Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano

AU - Cámera, Luis Alberto

AU - Cao, Chao

AU - Cao, Yin

AU - Carreras, Giulia

AU - Carvalho, Márcia

AU - Cembranel, Francieli

AU - Cerin, Ester

AU - Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo

AU - Charalampous, Periklis

AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar

AU - Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel

AU - Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo

AU - Cho, Daniel Youngwhan

AU - Cho, William C. S.

AU - Christopher, Devasahayam J.

AU - Chu, Dinh-Toi

AU - Chukwu, Isaac Sunday

AU - Cohen, Aaron J.

AU - Conde, Joao

AU - Cortés, Sanda

AU - Costa, Vera Marisa

AU - Cruz-Martins, Natália

AU - Culbreth, Garland T.

AU - Dadras, Omid

AU - Dagnaw, Fentaw Teshome

AU - Dahlawi, Saad M. A.

AU - Dai, Xiaochen

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Daneshpajouhnejad, Parnaz

AU - Danielewicz, Anna

AU - Dao, An Thi Minh

AU - Soltani, Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh

AU - Darwesh, Aso Mohammad

AU - Das, Saswati

AU - Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil

AU - Esmaeili, Elham Davtalab

AU - De la Hoz, Fernando Pio

AU - Debela, Sisay Abebe

AU - Dehghan, Azizallah

AU - Demisse, Biniyam

AU - Demisse, Fitsum Wolde

AU - Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar

AU - Derakhshani, Afshin

AU - Molla, Meseret Derbew

AU - Dereje, Diriba

AU - Deribe, Kalkidan Solomon

AU - Desai, Rupak

AU - Desalegn, Markos Desalegn

AU - Mpundu-Kaambwa, Christine

AU - Yadav, Lalit

PY - 2022/8/20

Y1 - 2022/8/20

N2 - BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

AB - BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

KW - Female

KW - Global Burden of Disease

KW - Global Health

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Neoplasms

KW - Quality-Adjusted Life Years

KW - Risk Assessment

KW - Risk Factors

KW - Smoking

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85136218317&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6

M3 - Article

SN - 0140-6736

VL - 400

SP - 563

EP - 591

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

IS - 10352

ER -

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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