TY - JOUR
T1 - The lingering effect of scandals in congressional elections
T2 - Incumbents, challengers, and voters
AU - Praino, Rodrigo
AU - Stockemer, Daniel
AU - Moscardelli, Vincent
PY - 2013/12
Y1 - 2013/12
N2 - Objective: We have two goals. First, we investigate both the short- and long-term electoral impact of involvement in scandals on reelection margins of incumbents in U.S. congressional elections. Second, we evaluate the impact of scandals on district-level turnout. Methods: We model the impact of involvement in a political scandal on incumbents' electoral margins in the election cycle in which the scandal comes to light, as well as in future election cycles. We also model the impact of scandal on district-level turnout. Results: Involvement in a scandal exerts not only an immediate, negative effect on incumbents' margins, but one that also lingers beyond the initial reelection cycle. Elections involving incumbents embroiled in scandals experience a small boost in turnout. Conclusion: In tandem, these results implicate the mobilization of previous nonvoters intent on "throwing the bum out" as one mechanism through which incumbent vote share is depressed in scandal elections.
AB - Objective: We have two goals. First, we investigate both the short- and long-term electoral impact of involvement in scandals on reelection margins of incumbents in U.S. congressional elections. Second, we evaluate the impact of scandals on district-level turnout. Methods: We model the impact of involvement in a political scandal on incumbents' electoral margins in the election cycle in which the scandal comes to light, as well as in future election cycles. We also model the impact of scandal on district-level turnout. Results: Involvement in a scandal exerts not only an immediate, negative effect on incumbents' margins, but one that also lingers beyond the initial reelection cycle. Elections involving incumbents embroiled in scandals experience a small boost in turnout. Conclusion: In tandem, these results implicate the mobilization of previous nonvoters intent on "throwing the bum out" as one mechanism through which incumbent vote share is depressed in scandal elections.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84887823959&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/ssqu.12046
DO - 10.1111/ssqu.12046
M3 - Article
VL - 94
SP - 1045
EP - 1061
JO - SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY
JF - SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY
SN - 0038-4941
IS - 4
ER -