The time-less threat of automation: has new technology been the predicted job killer?

This paper analyses the association between five prominent indicators of occupations’ exposure to the risk of automation owing to a greater use of artificial intelligence (AI) in goods and service provision or workforce management, and employment change between 2011 and 2021 in Australia. Whilst much of international research has focused on innovation leaders, notably the U.S.A. Australia is a more typical, moderately innovative economy. The study explores employment change in four industry sectors with rather different development trajectories, and for vacancy data. Indicators of automation risk that seek to capture current technological capacity rather than future potential are more frequently found to be associated with employment change. However, patterns vary between sectors, over time, and by the time spent performing specialist tasks in occupations. Whereas a frequent assumption is that AI may displace labour, the present analyses show occupations deemed to be at greater risk of automation to have expanded.