Timor-Leste at 50: Demographic trajectories for Asia’s newest country for 2052

Timor-Leste's 2022 census marked the fourth in its 20 years since independence. During this time its population has grown rapidly from 787,000 to 1,342,000, or by approximately 70%. This was spurred on by high fertility, declining mortality, and refugees returning from West Timor following the Indonesian occupation. With an average annual growth rate of 2.57% during this time, Timor-Leste was the fastest growing country in South-East Asia.

As the largest contributor to past population growth, fertility will continue to play a major role in Timor-Leste's demographic future. However, access to family planning remains low among women and may stall the ongoing fertility transition. Analysis evaluated the effects of socio-economic determinants on family planning access and contraception uptake to understand how they may influence future fertility outcomes. This was used to develop three total fertility rate assumptions to project Timor-Leste's population in 2051 using Spectrum and enabling the identification of potential barriers to reproductive empowerment and the ongoing fertility transition in Timor-Leste.

Analysis identified that employment opportunities, access to mass media, and education enable greater uptake of contraception and access to family planning. These can be leveraged to influence future demographic outcomes. The three scenarios projected a population between 1.821 and 2.198 million over the 30 years to 2051, an increase of between 35.7% and 63.8% from 2022. These projections see Timor-Leste's median age rise from 21.7 to between 24.9 and 31.3 years, while the total dependency ratio will decline from 0.404 to between 0.324 and 0.383. Lower fertility outcomes lead to a more balanced population age
structure with the potential for an earlier population dividend and greater human development outcomes for Timor-Leste. To achieve lower dependency within its population, policymakers will need to harness these enablers to empower women and couples to achieve their preferred family sizes.