Transitions to long-term unemployment risk among young people: evidence from Ireland

Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed. Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is known about the factors associated with long-term unemployment (LTU) risk for those youths who become unemployed. This article attempts to fill this gap in the literature by identifying the characteristics associated with young peoples' LTU risk in Ireland. The research, which is conducted using multivariate statistical analysis, uses a combination of unemployment register data and information gathered from a specially designed claimant questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making an unemployment benefit claim between September and December 2006. The results indicate that factors such as a recent history of LTU, a lack of basic literacy/numeracy skills and low levels of educational attainment, all have a significant impact on the likelihood that young people will remain unemployed for 12 months or more. A number of attributes are gender-specific, such as the presence of children, additional welfare benefits and spousal earnings for females and apprenticeship training and participation in a public sector job creation scheme for males. Comparisons with the characteristics associated with older welfare claimants LTU risk reveal some interesting difference between younger and older unemployed individuals.