Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen Lim, Theo Vos, Abraham Flaxman, Goodarz Danaei, Kenji Shibuya, Mohammad AlMazroa, Ross Anderson, Kathryn Andrews, Charles Atkinson, Adil Bahalim, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Amanda Baxter, Michelle Bell, Jed Blore, Fiona Blyth, Rupert Bourne, Michael Boussinesq, Peter Brooks, Claire Bryan-Hancock, Chiara BucelloRachelle Buchbinder, Bianca Calabria, J Carapetis, Fiona Charlson, Honglei Chen, Andrew Cheng, K Colson, Benjamin Cowie, Adrian Davis, Louisa Dergenhardt, Don Des Jarlais, E Dorsey, Tim Driscoll, Karen Edmond, Suad Ali, Patricia Erwin, Farshad Farzadfar, Mariel Finucane, Seth Flaxman, Francis Gerry Fowkes, Michael Freeman, Emmanuela Gakidou, Gerhard Gmel, Rebecca Grainger, David Gunnell, Wayne Hall, Damian Hoy, Sydney Ibeanusi, Rashmi Jasrasaria, Jost Jonas, Nicholas Kassebaum, Norito Kawakami, Jon-Paul Khoo, Ratilal Lalloo, Janet Leasher, James Leigh, John Lin, Steven Lipshultz, Rafael Lozano, Safa Abdalla, Victor Aboyans, Jerry Abraham, Reza Malekzadeh, Ilana Ackerman, Leslie Mallinger, Rakesh Aggarwal, Wagner Marcenes, Stephanie Ahn, Lyn March, Mohammed Ali, Robin Marks, Miriam Alvarado, Laurie Anderson, Larry Baddour, John McGrath, Lope Barrero, David Bartels, Z Memish, Maria-Gloria Basanez, George Mensah, Emelia Benjamin, Tony Merriman, Derrick Bennett, Eduardo Bernabe, Catherine Michaud, Kavi Bhalla, Bishal Bhandari, Boris Bikbov, Ali Mokdad, Aref Abdulhak, Lidia Morawska, Gretchen Birbeck, James Black, Hannah Blencowe, Mohsen Naghavi, Ian Bolliger, Audrey Bonaventure, Paul Nelson, Soufiane Boufus, Tasanee Braithwaite, Rosana Norman, Carol Brayne, Casey Olives, Lisa Bridgett, Saad Omer, Simon Brooker, Traolach Brugha, Richard Osborne, Geoffrey Buckle, Christine Budke, Andrew Page, Michael Burch, Peter Burney, Roy Burstein, Benjamin Campbell, Charles Canter, Neil Pearce, Helene Carabin, Loreto Carmona, Claudia Cella, Michael Phillips, David Chou, Sumeet Chugh, C Pope III, Luc Coffeng, Steven Colan, Samantha Colquhoun, Homie Razavi, John Condon, Myles Connor, Jurgen Rehm, Leslie Cooper, Matthew Corriere, Fred Rivara, Monica Cortinovis, Thomas Roberts, Karen de Vaccaro, Carolyn Robinson, William Couser, Michael Criqui, Marita Cross, Robin Room, Kaustubh Dabhadkar, Lisa Rosenfeld, Manu Dahiya, Nabila Dahodwala, Lesley Rushton, James Damsere-Derry, Joshua Salomon, Diego De Leo, Uchechukwu Sampson, Robert Dellavalle, Lidia Sanchez-Riera, Allyne Delossantos, Ella Sanman, Julie Denenberg, Sarah Derrett, Samath Dharmaratne, Mukesh Dherani, Cesar Diaz-Torne, Rupak Shivakoti, Helen Dolk, Gitanjali Singh, Herbert Duber, David Sleet, Timothy Lathlean, Beth Ebel, Emma Smith, Alexis Elbaz, Holly Erskine, Patricia Espindola, Stalin Ewoigbokhan, Valery Feigin, Lars Stovner, David Felson, Alize Ferrari, Cleusa Ferri, George Thurston, Eric Fevre, Louise Flood, Kyle Foreman, Mohammad Forouzanfar, Richard Franklin, Marlene Fransen, Robert Weintraub, Belinda Gabbe, Richard White, Sherine Gabriel, Harvey Whiteford, Hammad Ganatra, Bianca Garcia, Steven Wiersma, Flavio Gaspari, James Wilkinson, Richard Gillum, Hywel Williams, Richard Gosselin, Justina Groeger, Francis Guillemin, Anthony Woolf, Ramyani Gupta, Juanita Haagsma, Holly Hagan, Alan Lopez, Yara Halasa, C Murray, Diana Haring, Majid Ezzati, Josep Haro, James Harrison, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick Hay, Hideki Higashi, Catherine Hill, Bruno Hoen, Howard Hoffman, Peter Hotez, John Huang, Kathryn Jacobsen, Spencer James, Deborah Jarvis, Sudha Jayaraman, Nicole Johns, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Andre Keren, Charles King, Lisa Knowlton, Olive Kobusingye, Adofo Koranteng, Rita Krishnamurthi, Laura Laslett, Yong Lee, Elizabeth Limb, Michael Lipnick, Wei Liu, Maria Loane, Summer Ohno, Ronan Lyons, Jixiang Ma, Jacqueline Mabweijano, Michael MacIntyre, Sivabalan Manivannan, David Margolis, Guy Marks, Akira Matsumori, Richard Matzopoulos, Bongani Mayosi, John McAnulty, Mary McDermott, Neil McGill, Maria Medina-Mora, Michele Meltzer, Ana-Claire Meyer, Valeria Migliolicd, Matthew Miller, Ted Miller, Philip Mitchell, Ana Mocumbi, Terrie Moffitt, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Mazier Moradi-Lakeh, Andrew Moran, Rintaro Mori, Michele Murdoch, Michael Mwaniki, Kovin Naidoo, M Nair, Luigi Naldi, K Narayan, Robert Nelson, Michael Nevitt, Charles Newton, Sandra Nolte, Paul Norman, Martin O'Donnell, Simon O'Hanlon, Katrina Ortblad, Doruk Ozgediz, Bishnu Pahari, Jeyaraj Pandian, Andrea Rivero, Scott Patten, Rogelio Padilla, Fernando Perez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, David Phillips, Kelsey Pierce, Sebastien Pion, Guilherme Polanczyk, Suzanne Polinder, Svetlana Popova, Esteban Porrini, Farshad Pourmalek, Martin Prince, Rachel Pullan, Kapa Ramajah, Dharani Ranganathan, Mathilda Regan, David Rein, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Kathryn Richardson, Felipe De Leon, Luca Ronfani, Ralph Sacco, Sukanta Saha, David Schwebel, James Scott, Maria Segui-Gomez, Saeid Shahraz, Donald Shepard, Hwashin Shin, David Singh, Jasvinder Singh, Jessica Singleton, Karen Sliwa, Jennifer Smith, Nicholas Stapelberg, Andrew Steer, Timothy Steiner, Wilma Stolk, Christopher Sudfeld, Sana Syed, Giorgio Tamburlini, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Hugh Taylor, Jennifer Taylor, William Taylor, Bernadette Thomas, W Thomson, Imad Tleyjeh, Marcello Tonelli, Jeffrey Towbin, Thomas Truelsen, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris, Clotilde Ubeda, Eduardo Undarraga, Marieke van der Werf, Jim van Os, Monica Vavilala, N Venketasubramanian, Mengru Wang, Wenzhi Wang, Kerrianne Watt, David Weatherall, Martin Weinstock, Marc Weisskopf, Sean Williams, Emma Witt, Frederick Wolfe, Sarah Wulf, Pon-Hsiu Yeh, Anita Zaidi, Zhi-Jie Zhenggh, David Zonies

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    Abstract

    Background: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither eff ort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Eff ective and aff ordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)2163-2196
    Number of pages34
    JournalLancet
    Volume380
    Issue number9859
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

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    Lim, S., Vos, T., Flaxman, A., Danaei, G., Shibuya, K., AlMazroa, M., Anderson, R., Andrews, K., Atkinson, C., Bahalim, A., Barker-Collo, S., Baxter, A., Bell, M., Blore, J., Blyth, F., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Brooks, P., Bryan-Hancock, C., ... Zonies, D. (2012). Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet, 380(9859), 2163-2196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61729-2